Russia’s Oil and Gas Tax Revenues Set to Rise 10% in October Despite Production Slump

Russia’s federal budget tax revenues from oil and gas in October could rise by 10% compared to the same month last year, reaching roughly 1 trillion rubles ($12 billion), according to Reuters.

At the same time, overall proceeds from the oil and gas sector for January through October are projected to be 14% lower than during the same period in 2025.

The anticipated increase in October income stems primarily from quarterly payments under the excess profit tax on oil production. As a result of this mechanism, tax collection from oil and gas could more than double compared to September levels.

Even without accounting for the excess profit tax, October revenue is estimated by Reuters to grow by approximately 164 billion rubles ($2 billion), or 36%, compared to September, Reuters reported.

Global oil prices have been influenced by supply disruptions stemming from fighting in the Middle East. However, the positive financial impact of higher raw material prices is partially offset by reduced production, which the agency estimates was 5% lower in the third quarter of 2026 than in the same period last year.

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