EU May Invoke 1944 Belgian Wartime Law to Safeguard Russia Sanctions

The EU is exploring emergency measures, including invoking a decades-old Belgian law, to safeguard its sanctions on Russia amid threats from Hungary to block their renewal.

The Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told state radio on January 17, that Brussels must “adapt to the new situation — it’s time for us to throw sanctions out of the window and establish a sanctions-free relationship with the Russians. That is some way off but we need to work on it.”

He added: “The danger of war will recede significantly [with Trump’s presidency]. The next biggest source of danger is energy prices. We need to prevent Brussels from pursuing sanctions and eliminate the existing ones, in order to cut energy prices.”

Orbán warned EU leaders in December that he might veto the sanction’s extension, which requires unanimous approval. If Hungary follows through, the sanctions will expire on January 31. Orbán, who sees the incoming Trump administration as likely to ease US sanctions on Moscow, has argued that the EU should follow suit and dismantle its own measures against Russia.

One fallback for the EU involves using a 1944 Belgian wartime decree that allows King Philippe to block the transfer of assets. While the Royal Palace declined to confirm whether the king had been approached, officials emphasized that such a move would require government approval and the monarch’s signature.

Belgium’s foreign ministry expressed optimism about reaching an EU-wide agreement but has resisted unilateral action due to legal concerns, including a bilateral treaty with Russia .

Despite diplomatic efforts to sway Orbán, EU officials are preparing contingency plans to preserve €190 billion in frozen Russian state assets held at the Euroclear securities depository in Belgium. These assets, critical to funding a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, could be lost to Russia if sanctions lapse, leaving financial intermediaries without the legal authority to retain them. Other measures, such as trade restrictions and the oil import ban, would also end.

Proposals to strip Hungary of its voting rights to push through the sanctions renewal have been floated but lack the necessary unanimous support. EU diplomats remain cautious, “I am really very worried about this and others should be too,” said a senior EU diplomat who is in regular discussions with Hungarian officials. “There’s a high chance Orbán does not break.”

Belgium has not commented on whether it would use its extraordinary powers, while Euroclear declined to respond. EU officials are racing to ensure an agreement is reached before the January 31 deadline to prevent the sanctions regime from unraveling.

Earlier in 2024, Belgium announced it would deliver 30 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by 2028, according to Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib. The deal, part of the “F-16 coalition” with the Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway, aims to bolster Ukraine.