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Europe Must Arm So Russia “Has No Chance Against NATO,” Estonia Warns
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![Photo of Dariia Mykhailenko]( "Photo of Dariia Mykhailenko")
Europe should increase investment in defense and internal security to ensure Russia does not see an opportunity to challenge NATO, Estonia’s foreign intelligence service said in its annual report, warning that Moscow is rebuilding its military as European rearmament accelerates.
The assessment was published on February 10 and cited by Reuters.
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The warning was issued by Estonia, a NATO member bordering Russia that has been one of Moscow’s most vocal critics and a consistent supporter of Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
“(Europe) must invest in defense and internal security, so that...in the future Russia would conclude it has no chance against NATO countries,” said Kaupo Rosin, the head of the service, speaking to reporters.
Rosin stated Russian leaders are closely monitoring Europe’s rearmament efforts and are increasingly concerned about the continent’s growing military capacity.
“We see that the Russian leadership is very concerned about...European rearmament, they see that Europe might be able to conduct independent military action against Russia in two to three years,” he said, adding that Russia’s objective is now to “delay and hinder” this process.
The intelligence service noted that Russia’s ammunition production is expanding at a pace that would allow it to both sustain its war in Ukraine and build stockpiles for future conflicts. This rapid growth in output, the report said, represents a long-term challenge for European security.
The report also outlined how a potential Russian attack on Estonia could unfold, warning that such an operation would likely involve drones deployed “on land, in the air and at sea, simultaneously across Estonia's entire territory.”
At the same time, the Baltic states are preparing emergency evacuation plans in response to heightened security concerns driven by Russia’s expanding military spending and aggressive posture since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—NATO members that were formerly occupied by the Soviet Union—have repeatedly warned of rising threats from Russia, citing cyberattacks, disinformation operations, and recent violations of their airspace by Russian aircraft and drones.
All three countries have significantly increased defense spending and are now developing detailed civil defense measures. These include plans to protect civilians in the event of a crisis.
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“Threats could vary,” said Renatas Pozela. “It’s possible we will see a mighty army along the borders of the Baltics, with the apparent goal of taking all three countries in three days to a week.”
Officials say the contingency planning covers scenarios ranging from sabotage of communications infrastructure and large-scale population movements to unrest among Russian-speaking communities and coordinated disinformation campaigns designed to spread panic. Authorities are preparing shelters, evacuation routes, and reserves of essential supplies.
In Lithuania, the city of Kaunas alone has identified space for up to 300,000 evacuees in facilities such as schools, churches, and sports arenas.
“It’s a very reassuring message to our society that we are ready and we are planning,” said Kęstutis Budrys.
Earlier, it was repoprted that Russia is enlarging military installations near its border with Finland and positioning additional forces closer to Europe, moves that Western officials and analysts say could point to longer-term preparations for a confrontation with NATO.
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