Everything We Know So Far About the New Ballistic Missile That Struck Ukraine, According to Ukraine's Intelligence

On November 21, Russia launched an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro using an unidentified missile.

Preliminary reports from the Ukrainian Air Force indicated that the missile was likely an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) RS-26 Rubezh, capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Later, Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced on November 21 that Russia had launched the latest ballistic hypersonic missile "Oreshnik" missile at Ukraine, claiming it was a test launch of this "advanced missile."

On November 21, Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh stated that the intermediate-range ballistic missile “Oreshnik” is based on the RS-26 “Rubezh” intercontinental ballistic missile.

On November 22, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (HUR) has provided new details about the ballistic missile used by Russia in the November 21 strike on Dnipro:

• The missile was likely launched from the Russian "Kedr" missile system.

• It was fired from the Astrakhan region, hit its target in Dnipro just 15 minutes after launch.

• The missile was equipped with six warheads, each containing six submunitions, and reached speeds exceeding 11 Mach during its final descent.

• The "Kedr" missile system had undergone testing at the Russian Central Interservice Range in Kapustin Yar, Astrakhan, in both October 2023 and June 2024, according to HUR.

Vadym Skibitsky, Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, stated in a comment to Ukrinform that Russia may have up to ten units of the new ballistic missile.

"If this is a research and combat use, then at least ten missiles will be involved. To launch a missile into serial production, at least ten tests are required. We saw this with the Bulava missile system, where half of the launches were successful and half were unsuccessful," he said.

According to analysts from Defense Express, The Russian military-industrial complex often employs ambiguity in naming its projects, much like the Kh-101 cruise missile is also referred to as "Izdelie 504," to conceal its actual medium-range ballistic missile programs.

Analysts suggest that by using the "Oreshnik" name, the Kremlin aimed to create the illusion of new, unknown missile capabilities, intending to intimidate the West.

"Whether it was an ICBM or an IRBM, the range isn't the important factor," said Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at Oslo University specializing in missile technology and nuclear strategy, according to Reuters.

"What matters more is that it carried a MIRVed (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle) payload, which is significant for signaling purposes. This type of payload is exclusively linked to nuclear-capable missiles, and that's likely why Russia chose it."