-111f0e5095e02c02446ffed57bfb0ab1.jpeg "Photo of Roman Kohanets")
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly downgraded its outlook for the Russian economy, forecasting a sharp deceleration in growth following two years of war-driven expansion. The revised estimates were published in the Fund’s July 2025 World Economic Outlook update released on July 29.
According to the IMF, Russia’s GDP is projected to grow just 0.9% in 2025—down from 4.1% in 2024—and will increase only slightly to 1.0% in 2026. This represents a 0.6 percentage point downgrade compared to the IMF’s April 2025 forecast, the steepest revision among all major economies included in the update.
“After two years of war-fueled growth, the Russian economy is expected to return to stagnation and will continue falling behind both developed and emerging markets,” the report states.
In comparison, global GDP is forecast to grow by 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. Emerging economies are expected to expand at even faster rates—4.0% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026. Russia will also underperform relative to individual countries: the US economy is projected to grow by 3.9% over the next two years, China by 9%, and India by 6.4% annually through 2026.
Petya Koeva-Brooks, Deputy Director of the IMF’s Research Department, attributed the downgrade to “tighter domestic economic policies and declining oil prices.” The Fund estimates the average price of Brent crude will fall by 13.9% in 2025 to $68.18 per barrel, with a further 5.7% drop expected in 2026 to $64.33.
Meanwhile, it was reported that Russia’s oil exports declined to their lowest seasonal levels in five years. In June 2025, crude oil shipments averaged 4.68 million barrels per day, while refined product exports dropped to 2.55 million barrels per day.
The slump has raised concerns about Russia’s long-term production capabilities despite steady output levels.
