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ISW: Kremlin Moves to Manipulate Trump Into Accepting Putin’s Demands

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ISW: Kremlin Moves to Manipulate Trump Into Accepting Putin’s Demands
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (L) and US President Donald Trump arrive for a group photo at the G20 Summit in Osaka on June 28, 2019. (Source: Getty Images)

The Kremlin is maneuvering to push US President Donald Trump into accepting Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s demands while elevating Putin’s global stature as an equal to Trump, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report on January 30.

ISW analysts examined the motivations behind a January 30 interview published by the Kremlin-controlled TASS news agency with Fyodor Lukyanov, sanctioned Kremlin propagandist and the scientific director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

The interview, titled “Don’t Expect Major Agreements,” highlights the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to shape both domestic and international expectations regarding potential future negotiations between Putin and Trump.

Vladimir Putin speaks during the annual meeting with participants of the Valdai International Discussion Club in Moscow, Russia on October 27, 2022. Fyodor Lukyanov chaired the session. (Source: Getty Images)
Vladimir Putin speaks during the annual meeting with participants of the Valdai International Discussion Club in Moscow, Russia on October 27, 2022. Fyodor Lukyanov chaired the session. (Source: Getty Images)

The Valdai Discussion Club serves as a platform where Kremlin officials, Russian scholars, and foreign experts debate global issues.

According to ISW, the Kremlin has long used the forum to influence Western policy in Russia’s favor. Lukyanov, a senior member and research director at Valdai, moderated Putin’s annual speeches at the club multiple times and is considered an authoritative voice on Kremlin foreign policy objectives, despite holding no official government position.

While ISW does not verify whether Lukyanov has direct insight into Putin’s thinking or intentions regarding future peace talks, analysts note that his statements align closely with those made by Putin and other senior Kremlin officials.

“Lukyanov’s statements assume that Trump and his administration are weak and more susceptible to intimidation by the Kremlin’s shows of force than the former Biden administration,” ISW reported.

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Lukyanov claimed that Trump wants to “dump all further problems” concerning Ukraine onto Europe, arguing that he “does not respect” European states or NATO.

He suggested that Trump might be willing to compromise NATO’s core principles to appease Putin’s demands for a NATO withdrawal from Eastern Europe. Lukyanov further asserted that Trump could abandon both Ukraine and the alliance.

According to Lukyanov, “Trump only respects those who show steadfastness,” urging the Kremlin to “never give in” and to be “prepared for a fairly tough conversation, even including elements of [a] bluff.”

During the interview, Lukyanov claimed that the “main issue” in future Ukraine peace talks is “not territory,” but addressing the “root causes” of the war—framing NATO’s eastward expansion in the 1990s and early 2000s as the real trigger.

He suggested that for Russian forces, territorial concerns are already settled, stating, “With territories, everything is clear: however much you take, that’s how much you get.” His remarks signal that the Kremlin has no intention of compromising on Ukraine’s occupied territories in any future negotiations.

Earlier, Trump indicated that he would impose new sanctions on Russia if Putin refuses to engage in negotiations over its invasion of Ukraine, following tasking his special envoy to Ukraine, retired Lt. General Keith Kellogg with achieving a resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine within 100 days.

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