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Kremlin Prepares Involuntary Reserve Call-Ups as Russia Struggles to Replace Losses
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The Kremlin may resort to limited compulsory reserve call-ups as Russia’s army struggles to replenish battlefield losses in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on March 29.
The think tank examination that fuss is mounting inside Russia over the poor results of the Defense Ministry’s recruitment drive for its drone forces. ISW linked those complaints to broader signs that Moscow’s voluntary recruitment system is losing effectiveness after months of heavy losses.
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According to the report, Russia launched a recruitment campaign for its drone units in January 2026, including outreach to students, but the contracts on offer have alarmed potential recruits because they do not reliably shield them from being reassigned to assault infantry roles.
RBC-Ukraine also noted that Russian opposition sources had previously warned that, in practice, such contracts may keep recruits in service until the war ends.
“The blogger’s complaints from March 29 indicate that the Russian Ministry of Defense’s efforts to revamp its voluntary recruitment campaign are not achieving the desired results,” ISW assessed.
The think tank added that it “continues to assess that the Kremlin is preparing for limited, rolling involuntary reserve callups” aimed at sustaining Russia’s replacement rate rather than significantly expanding the size of the army.
The warning includes ISW’s longer assessment that the Kremlin has been setting conditions for future forced call-ups while trying to avoid the political shock of another mass mobilization like the one announced in September 2022.
The pressure on Russia’s recruitment system is also reflected in the near-exhaustion of manpower drawn from occupied Ukrainian territories.
The manpower pool in the temporarily occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk is largely exhausted, with Ukrainian military intelligence reporting that most able-bodied men have already been mobilized, killed, or rendered unfit for service.
According to intelligence spokesman Andrii Cherniak, the men who remain are now more useful for maintaining basic infrastructure than for joining any new combat formations.
Cherniak added that the same pattern is visible in occupied parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, where forced passportization was followed by compulsory mobilization after Russia consolidated control.
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