1 to 27: Russia Is Now Losing Troops Faster Than It Can Recruit

The total losses of the Russian army over nearly four years of full-scale war have surpassed 1.25 million killed and wounded—irrecoverable losses. In just the past three months alone, that figure has reached nearly 100,000 Russian troops. In December and January, losses amounted to 35,000 and 30,000, respectively. Russia is losing its army at a phenomenal pace. On certain sections of the front, this fully reflects the Soviet-era tactic of “meat assaults.”

One example is Kupiansk. In September 2025, Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive operation to clear the city of Kupiansk of sabotage and reconnaissance groups and conducted sweep operations in the surrounding areas. UK intelligence says Russian losses were 1 to 27 at one point, as Ukraine forces killed 27 Russian troops for every soldier lost at Kupiansk. Previously, the average ratio had been 1 to 6 or 7. Recently, however, the ratio on some fronts has increased to as high as 1 to 20–25.

Such losses have not gone unnoticed. As Bloomberg reported, citing its own sources, in January 2026, the Russian army lost 9,000 more troops than it recruited in volunteers. UK Defense Secretary John Healey also noted that this has been the overall trend for the Kremlin over the past two months: the Russian army is losing more troops than it can attract. The front line now stretches across 1,200 kilometers, and for every kilometer, Russia is losing more than 170 soldiers, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says.

Ukraine’s goal by the summer of 2026 is to increase Russian losses to 50,000–60,000 troops per month. In that case, even a general mobilization in Russia would not save the situation. In 2022, the Kremlin managed to mobilize 300,000 troops within a few months—all of whom have since been killed. It is important to note that these figures refer specifically to confirmed losses: every killing or injury is verified by video. Ukrainian servicemembers add that a significant percentage of casualties go unconfirmed, as they occur in small-arms engagements or strikes on troop deployment sites where it is difficult to determine exact numbers. Therefore, the final figure may be even higher.

If the Ukrainian army achieves its stated goal, Russia’s losses will increase dramatically:

Sources within the army cited by UNITED24 Media suggest it is critically important that the share of those killed increases. Whereas during the first two years the proportion of killed personnel was under 50%, it now exceeds 65% of total losses due to precision drone strikes.

Assuming Russia is conscripting 30,000–40,000 troops per month, with losses of 50,000–60,000 per month, it simply will not be able to replenish its ranks and will gradually degrade. Statements from Ukrainian intelligence confirm this assessment: by early December 2025, Russia had drafted 403,000 troops, fulfilling 103% of its annual plan. The plan for 2026 is to draft no fewer. If the Kremlin cannot fulfill its conscription plan at 120%–130%, it will not have sufficient forces to maintain even a comparable pace of offensive operations.

One way for Moscow to sustain troop numbers is through mercenaries. In total, approximately 17,000 troops have been recruited from North Korea. Mercenaries from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Cuba, Nigeria, and Senegal are also fighting on the Kremlin’s side. Some are lured into service with money, others through deception. For the Russian army, this is one of the ways to replenish its offensive forces.

Why is all of this important to understand? Putin and his team of officials continue to project a single message to the world—that his victory is inevitable. Reality suggests otherwise. Over the past five months, Russia has repeatedly announced the reoccupation of Kupiansk; in reality, the city remains free of Russian forces. The Russian army is stalled in Pokrovsk, unable to capture Chasiv Yar, Kostiantynivka, and other cities, while a Ukrainian counterattack in the Zaporizhzhia region has neutralized previous Russian assaults. With the support of its allies, Ukraine continues to hold back significantly superior enemy forces.

On the Frontline of Truth

Our reporters work on the frontlines to show what’s really happening in Ukraine. Your support helps them keep reporting.

SUPPORT FRONTLINE REPORTS