Loss of Military Bases in Syria Could Undermine Russia’s Geopolitical Influence in Africa

The loss of military bases in Syria could significantly threaten Russia’s operational capabilities in Africa. It would diminish Russia's leverage in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa while also challenging its influence over authoritarian regimes on the continent.

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“Russia has utilized its Tartus naval base to assert power in the Mediterranean, challenge NATO's southern flank, and maintain a strategic link between its Black Sea and Mediterranean assets,” ISW stated. “Losing its bases in Syria would likely disrupt Russian logistics, resupply operations, and Africa Corps rotations, significantly weakening its military activities and power projection in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa.”

According to ISW, while Russia might attempt to shift its focus to Libya or Sudan as alternatives, the absence of formal agreements and inadequate infrastructure in these countries render them poor substitutes. 

“The collapse of Assad's regime and Russia’s failure to uphold it would further tarnish its global reputation as a reliable ally, undermining its influence among African autocrats and jeopardizing its broader ambitions to position itself as a global superpower,” ISW wrote.

Analysts say, that even if Russia maintains some or all of its bases in Syria, it will be at the mercy of Syrian opposition groups that the Kremlin previously used to call terrorists.

Earlier, Syrian opposition forces reportedly seized full control of Latakia and Tartus provinces, which host Russian military bases.

On December 8, Syrian opposition forces declared the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad after capturing Damascus, bringing an end to more than five decades of authoritarian rule under the Assad dynasty.