In a report published by Mediazona in collaboration with the BBC Russian Service, and a team of volunteers, the numbers confirmed the deaths of 56,585 Russian soldiers in the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine. This figure, derived from open sources such as obituaries and burial records, represents only a portion of the total fatalities.
Another joint report by Russian media outlets Meduza and Mediazona, based on data from the Register of Inheritance Cases (RND), suggests that the actual death toll is significantly higher. The most recent estimate, from the end of 2023, put the number at 75,000. However, due to the time-consuming nature of analyzing RND data, these estimates often lag behind those based on obituaries.
To provide more timely estimates, a new method has been developed that combines historical RND data with obituary lists. This approach predicts the total number of deaths with high accuracy.
The primary challenge in interpreting RND data lies in converting the number of inheritance cases into accurate mortality figures. To address this, analysts developed a method that:
Analyzes the overlap between Mediazona lists and RND records.
Accounts for the varying likelihood of opening an inheritance case based on the deceased’s age.
Considers the differing probabilities of opening an inheritance case for individuals from various military branches, including prisoners recruited for combat.
Compensates for the recent decrease in the likelihood of opening inheritance cases over the past six months.
When calculating excess mortality, incorporate the ratio of cases opened for men versus women, along with their long-term trends.
According to this new method, approximately 120,000 Russian military personnel have died in the war since 2022, with a margin of error ranging from 106,000 to 140,000.
Despite the inherent delays in calculating RND-based estimates, the overall figure remains at around 120,000 by June 2024, with updates expected monthly.
Additionally, the report details that it is often possible to identify the deceased’s branch of military service or method of enlistment—whether they were mobilized, volunteered, or prisoners—through death reports or indirect signs like uniform patches in photos.
During winter and early spring, the Airborne Forces and Motorised Rifle troops suffered the most significant losses.
As of May 24, the deaths of 3,749 officers from the Russian army and other security agencies have been confirmed, including 437 officers of Lieutenant Colonel rank and higher.
By late 2022 and early 2023, the number of losses among prisoners recruited into the Wagner PMC increased significantly. These prisoners were organized into “assault groups” to attack Ukrainian positions near Bakhmut.
By March 2023, prisoners constituted the largest group of casualties. Following the capture of Bakhmut, there have been no further instances alike.
Earlier, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in an interview with BBC that around 20,000 of Russia’s military personnel were killed in action during its spring offensive in Kharkiv.
