Russia Appears to Prepare Escalation Near Ukraine. What Satellite Images Reveal

Russia has set up at least nine launch sites for its Iskander short-range missile systems near the Ukrainian border, including in occupied Crimea, according to satellite imagery and data published by the Strategic Aviation of Russia Telegram channel on January 31.

The analysis identifies launch zones for both Iskander-M ballistic and Iskander-K cruise missile variants in several Russian regions—Kursk, Bryansk, and Rostov—as well as within temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. These locations are reportedly used to conduct strikes deep into Ukrainian territory.

In the Kursk region, three separate launch areas were pinpointed. One is located west of Shumakovo village, where a former 9P78-1 Iskander launcher base is situated. While Ukrainian drones previously targeted and destroyed systems at this location, current activity remains unverified.

Another site near the town of Shchigry is reportedly used primarily for launching Iskander-K cruise missiles. According to the channel, missiles of this type were used in an attack on Kyiv during the night of January 13.

A third site in the vicinity of Cheremushki village shows camouflaged military hardware, believed to include Iskander-M systems, positioned in open areas without permanent shelters.

Several launch points have been identified near Novoselivske, close to the administrative border with occupied Crimea. These include multiple positions used to fire ballistic missiles. Satellite photos reviewed by the channel show active construction at several sites, including what appears to be newly built fortifications.

The airbase near Taganrog has also been flagged as a recent point of interest. On January 28, an An-124 heavy-lift aircraft reportedly delivered an Iskander complex to the area, which was subsequently deployed nearby.

Other areas of activity include the outskirts of Taganrog and Millerovo, as well as the Chauda training range in Crimea. However, the Molykin training ground in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai remains one of the primary bases for Iskander operations.

Open-source assessments indicate that Russia conducted approximately 492 Iskander ballistic missile launches in 2025 alone. The Iskander-M system can be equipped with at least seven different types of ballistic missiles, depending on operational requirements.

Russia’s use of the Iskander system—capable of striking targets up to 500 km away—remains a key element of its long-range precision-strike capability in the war against Ukraine.

Earlier, Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate disclosed the industrial network behind Russia’s Iskander‑K cruise missile, identifying 41 Russian and Belarusian enterprises involved in producing the 9M727 missile.

According to HUR, the list—published on the War & Sanctions platform—includes the Novator Design Bureau as the lead developer, along with dozens of suppliers responsible for propulsion, guidance, electronics, and warhead components. Ukrainian intelligence noted that several of the identified companies remain outside international sanctions regimes.

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