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Russia Could Be Ready for a New War in Europe Just One Year After the Ukraine War Ends, Dutch Intel Chief Warns
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![Photo of Vlad Litnarovych]( "Photo of Vlad Litnarovych")
The Netherlands is preparing for the possibility of a future conflict with Russia, believing Moscow could restore its military capabilities within a year of ending the war in Ukraine, Vice Admiral Pieter Reesink, director of the Dutch military intelligence agency MIVD, told Politico in comments published May 8.
Reesink warned that the Kremlin is deepening its geopolitical, military, and economic ties with China while stepping up hybrid threats and cyberattacks aimed at destabilizing Europe.
In its annual report released in late April, the MIVD said both Russia and China have intensified hybrid operations targeting the Netherlands and its allies. Russia, in particular, has been carrying out increasingly aggressive cyberattacks.
According to Politico, among the incidents was a 2024 cyber-sabotage operation by a Russian hacker group against the control systems of a Dutch public institution. Another attack targeted critical infrastructure, though it was thwarted before it could cause disruption.
Russian hackers also launched cyberattacks on websites belonging to political parties and public transport companies ahead of the European Parliament elections, an effort intended to complicate voter access.
According to Reesink, this kind of interference isn’t limited to the Netherlands.
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“We have information of Russian interference in different elections, and not only through disinformation. That’s in a few countries, and it is mostly with countries which used to be under the influence of Russia,” he said.
Reesink also pointed to Chinese cyber activities, referencing the 2023 revelation that a Chinese group infiltrated major US telecommunications networks.
“We saw something similar happening in Europe, although not at the same level as in the US,” he said. “But what we can observe is only a limited part of China’s complex cyber system.”
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Beyond cyber threats, Reesink said Russia’s most concerning behavior is its rapid rearmament.
In 2024, Russia’s defense budget reached $142 billion—a 38% increase over the previous year and double the level seen in 2015, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
“Russia is producing much more artillery, also with help from other countries, than they need for the war with Ukraine,” Reesink said.
He noted that the Kremlin is not only replenishing stockpiles but also moving new artillery units closer to NATO borders, including in the Baltic states and Finland.
“That’s an indication for us that they are building up capability,” he added, though MIVD does not currently expect Russia to start a new war imminently.
Still, the Netherlands believes that if Russia settles with Ukraine, it could be militarily ready for another conflict within a year—provided its current production pace and political will continue.
“The Netherlands, like the rest of NATO countries, is in a phase of enhanced readiness program to make sure that we’re ready if that occurs,” Reesink said.
He noted that while most ministries have faced budget cuts, defense spending remains untouched.
“We were a little bit reluctant over the past 20, 30 years, I must admit, but now that awareness is back again.”
Earlier, reports emerged that despite record declines in oil revenues and a growing budget deficit, the Kremlin has doubled its 2025 funding for Yunarmiya , a Russian youth movement known for promoting military training and ideological indoctrination among teenagers.
The group has been allocated $12.3 million (1 billion rubles) this year—the highest amount since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
-a80eca3386f843ec2c53278e18ae1131.jpg "Rare Footage Shows Ukrainian Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Unit Launching Multiple Chaklun-V UAVs at Night, Video")
