Russia Gears Up for Major Offensive in Donetsk Region, Targeting Lyman and Borova, ISW Reports

Russia is preparing for a large-scale offensive in Donetsk, with forces concentrating northeast of Lyman in an effort to capture both Lyman and Borova in the coming months, the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on April 1.

These efforts are focused on pushing Ukrainian forces from key positions on the left bank of the Zherebets River, using infantry assaults to make gradual advances, attempting to achieve their objectives by employing the “human wave” tactic. However, the Russian forces face challenges in their use of armored vehicles due to equipment shortages.

“Russian forces began efforts to push Ukrainian forces from their positions on the east (left) bank of the Zherebets River in late 2023 and have only recently established a relatively stable bridgehead from which Russian forces can launch further offensive operations,” according to the ISW.

Furthermore, this bridgehead could be used to capture the remaining 1% of Luhansk region not yet under Russian control, fulfilling the Kremlin’s long-standing objective of occupying the entire region.

Experts believe that Russian forces may have already occupied Novolubivka and made further advancements northwest and southeast of it, with movement also observed toward the southern outskirts of Katerynivka.

The 144th and 3rd motorized Russian rifle divisions are playing a key role in the offensive. These divisions are reportedly being reinforced without being rotated for rest, indicating Russia’s intention to maintain continuous pressure on Ukrainian defenses.

The analysis suggests that the Russian offensive is not only focused on securing Lyman and Borova but also on expanding Russia’s position in the Luhansk region, aiming to seize the last remaining portion of Ukrainian-controlled territory in Luhansk. Russian forces initially captured all of Luhansk region on July 3, 2022, but Ukrainian forces subsequently drove them back from the Luhansk region administrative border during the Fall 2022 counteroffensive.

The ISW concludes: “The Kremlin would likely exploit the second seizure and retention of Luhansk region to gain leverage during ongoing ceasefire negotiations and future peace negotiations, which ISW continues to assess as a key motivating factor for Russian forces recently intensified ground activity in Ukraine.”

Russia’s push for control over Lyman and Borova is part of a broader effort to force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from key positions, particularly along the Oskil River and into western Kharkiv region.

By securing these areas, Russian forces would aim to create conditions for further offensive operations into Donetsk region, a region that has long been a strategic goal for Russia’s military objectives in Ukraine.

Russia’s military strategy in Ukraine centers on territorial gains, with the seizure of Luhansk region seen as a key victory to justify personnel losses and strengthen its position in future negotiations.

“The Kremlin could also leverage the seizure of Luhansk Oblast  as a significant victory to its domestic audience and to justify years of brutal personnel losses in Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that Russian officials are intentionally stalling the ceasefire and peace negotiations in hopes of gaining more territory to leverage during future peace negotiations,” concludes the report.

In related news, senior officials in US President Donald Trump’s administration are reportedly considering the likelihood that a peace deal in Ukraine may not be achievable in the coming months, Reuters reported on April 1.