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Russia’s November Oil and Gas Revenues Seen Down 35%, Missing Budget Targets
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Russia’s oil and gas revenue is expected to drop by around 35% in November from a year earlier, reaching roughly $6.6 billion, as weaker crude prices and a stronger ruble cut into Moscow’s main source of budget income, Reuters reported on November 24.
Based on official tax formulas and market data, November oil and gas receipts, which account for approximately a quarter of Russia’s federal budget, are also expected to decline by 7.4% from October, excluding cyclical profit-related payments.
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The decline comes as Russia maintains elevated defense and security spending following the launch of its full-scale war in Ukraine in February 2022, thereby increasing the importance of energy taxes for budget financing.
For the first 11 months of 2025, oil and gas revenue is projected to total approximately $102 billion, representing a 22% year-over-year decline and significantly below the roughly $141 billion collected in 2024.
The Finance Ministry initially planned to raise about $139 billion from oil and gas this year but last month cut the target to around $110 billion as prices fell, with the average tax price for Russian oil dropping to $57.3 per barrel from $68.3 a year earlier and the ruble firming to 81.1 per dollar from 91.7, reducing export revenues in ruble terms.
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The pressure on hydrocarbon income has been compounded by Western sanctions aimed at curbing Moscow’s ability to fund the war. The US Treasury said on November 17 that sanctions imposed on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil “are already reducing Moscow’s oil revenues and were likely to reduce the quantity of Russian oil sold in the long term.”
At the same time, Vladimir Putin has repeatedly responded that Russia will not be forced into policy changes by sanctions and that, while restrictions can hurt the economy, it can survive and develop without Western partners.
Earlier, it was reported that Russia’s federal oil and gas revenues fell 27% year-over-year in October, as sanctions, lower crude prices, and a stronger ruble eroded the Kremlin’s key source of wartime income. Major exporters, such as Rosneft and Lukoil, were under intensified pressure.
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