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US Intelligence Warns Russia Could Force War Settlement on Its Terms in Ukraine
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![Photo of Dariia Mykhailenko]( "Photo of Dariia Mykhailenko")
US intelligence assesses that Russia has maintained an advantage in its war against Ukraine over the past year and remains confident it can prevail on the battlefield and force a settlement on its own terms.
This was stated in the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, released on March 18.
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“Moscow almost certainly remains confident that it will prevail on the battlefield in Ukraine and force a settlement on its terms,” the report says.
At the same time, the assessment notes that US efforts aimed at achieving a negotiated peace could change the situation and reduce the broader regional consequences of the war.
The report warns that “continuation of the war increases the risk of both inadvertent and deliberate escalation to direct conflict between Russia and NATO forces.”
US intelligence also cautions that Russia’s nuclear threats and its combat use of medium-range missile systems in Ukraine raise the likelihood of the conflict expanding beyond its current scope.
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According to the document, Russia continues to conduct sabotage and influence operations against US allies, including a railway explosion in Poland in November 2025. The report states that “Russia retains the capability to selectively challenge US interests globally by military and nonmilitary means.”
“Even with wartime attrition, Russia’s ground forces have grown, and its air and naval forces are intact and arguably more capable than before the full-scale invasion,” the assessment says.
The report also notes that Moscow is deepening cooperation with China, Iran, and North Korea, while using cyber operations, disinformation, energy market manipulation, and sabotage to advance its strategic goals.
At the same time, the document adds that “durable settlement to the war in Ukraine could open the door for a thaw in US–Russia relations and an improved bilateral geostrategic and commercial relationship.”
Against this backdrop, Ukraine is seeking to strengthen international partnerships, including expanding cooperation with Middle Eastern countries.
According to Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi on March 18, Kyiv is looking for reciprocal support from regional partners as it deepens collaboration in countering Iranian-made Shahed drones.
Tykhyi said Kyiv expects cooperation in four main areas: stronger political support for Ukraine, continued sanctions pressure on Russia and Iran, broader collaboration in security and defense, and involvement in Ukraine’s reconstruction and investment projects.
“Protecting the sky and civilian infrastructure is a shared challenge, and Ukraine advocates for mutually beneficial partnership in this area,” he said.
On the same day, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said that relations with Russia cannot return to normal under the current circumstances, stressing the need to maintain pressure on Moscow over its war against Ukraine.
“There can be no return to normal cooperation with Russia. Sanctions must be maintained and strengthened, accountability for war crimes must be sought, and Russia’s diplomatic isolation must be preserved,” Budrys said during a press briefing.
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-9a5267da2a14df9170e8745c5519bee6.png "Fire at the oil export port in Russia’s Leningrad region, March 23, 2026. (Source: Exilenova_plus)")
-111f0e5095e02c02446ffed57bfb0ab1.jpeg "Photo of Roman Kohanets")