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Belarus Opposition Claims Lukashenko May Be Preparing to Enter Russia’s War Against Ukraine
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The United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus warned on June 22 that self-proclaimed President Alexander Lukashenko may be preparing to enter Russia’s war against Ukraine directly. The democratic opposition body, established by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, has already submitted a report on the matter to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.
This was stated in an appeal by the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus on June 22, the main executive body of the Belarusian democratic opposition established in 2022 by opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Its stated goals include restoring constitutional order in Belarus and preparing the country for democratic elections.
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Deputy head of the Cabinet Pavel Latushka handed over a detailed report to Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry outlining what the opposition describes as systematic preparations by the Lukashenko regime for potential entry into the war.
The document highlights eight key indicators, according to the opposition, suggesting that Belarus is increasingly aligning itself with Russia’s military agenda.
Among them is what the authors describe as the legalization of “preemptive strikes.” They argue that recent constitutional and military legal changes have effectively removed Belarus’s neutral and non-nuclear status. The new 2024 military doctrine reportedly allows preemptive strikes in case of what authorities define as an “immediate threat,” as well as the deployment of Belarusian forces abroad.
The report also points to large-scale force expansion, noting a 1.5-fold increase in contract soldiers since 2022 and a mobilization reserve estimated at 289,000 people. A Southern Operational Command is being formed near the Ukrainian direction, with potential troop levels exceeding 80,000, alongside the creation of a so-called “people’s militia” of up to 150,000 personnel. The opposition also claims Belarus has introduced SMS draft notices and expanded recruitment practices, including the enlistment of prisoners.
Another area outlined is the shift of the economy onto a wartime footing. Defense spending is reported to have increased fivefold over four years, while Belarus’s defense industry has been fully integrated with Russia’s and placed under strict secrecy. According to the report, more than 4,000 pieces of military equipment were introduced into service in 2024 alone.
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The document also highlights deepened military integration with Russia, including the continued presence of Russian troops on Belarusian territory, deployment of tactical nuclear weapons and the “Oreshnik” missile system, as well as training of Belarusian forces by Wagner Group instructors.
Further concerns include what the opposition describes as extensive militarization along Belarus’s borders with Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania, including defensive fortifications and infrastructure upgrades intended to support Russian military logistics. The report also cites compulsory military training in schools and the expansion of military-patriotic programs for children.
In addition, the opposition points to civil preparedness measures, including new wartime medical triage protocols, inspection of thousands of bomb shelters in Minsk, regular alarm system tests, and procurement of protective equipment for local militia units.
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The report also notes increased accumulation of strategic reserves, including a doubling of mandatory fuel stockpiles and expanded lists of civilian equipment subject to mobilization. Under a government decree dated May 15, 2026, civilian transport owned by enterprises may be requisitioned for military convoys.
Finally, the authors cite ongoing large-scale military exercises in 2026, which they say are being used to test mobilization systems and maintain pressure on society.
The United Transitional Cabinet emphasized that the report submitted to Ukraine not only documents these developments but also includes recommendations aimed at preventing escalation and deterring further militarization by the Lukashenko regime.
During her visit to Kyiv on May 25, Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said that Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s full-scale invasion serves as a key source of strength and inspiration for Belarusians.
During a press conference, Tsikhanouskaya said that Ukraine’s success on the battlefield is closely connected to prospects for Belarus’s future liberation from its current authoritarian leadership.
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