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War in Ukraine

Russia Could Sustain 100 Ballistic Missile Strikes Monthly After Current Surge, Expert Warns

2 min read
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Photo of Roman Kohanets
News Writer
A Russian serviceman prepares an Iskander-M ballistic missile for launch during a military exercise. (Photo: Russian Defense Ministry)
A Russian serviceman prepares an Iskander-M ballistic missile for launch during a military exercise. (Photo: Russian Defense Ministry)

Russia could keep launching roughly 100 ballistic missiles a month once its current surge of strikes eases, according to an assessment by Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov, an adviser to the President of Ukraine on defense technology development.

Beskrestnov set out the estimate in a video posted to Facebook on August 5, in remarks relayed by Ukrinform. He framed the figure as his own projection rather than an official forecast.

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He described a heavy overnight ballistic strike on Ukrainian production sites and warehouses and warned that such attacks would continue.

"Tonight there was a very powerful ballistic attack on our production, on our warehouses… And it will continue as long as the enemy has ballistic missiles," he stated.

Beskrestnov noted that Russian forces have recently stopped singling out any one category of civilian target, hitting food and construction-material depots, retail sites, and Ukrainian manufacturing alike.

He estimated that the present intensity is being sustained in part by Russian reserves, and that Moscow could settle into a steady rate of around 100 ballistic missiles each month.

"By my estimates, the enemy can launch about 100 ballistic missiles at us every month," he added.

Beskrestnov explained that Russia frequently relies on local informants to direct its strikes, recruiting people who watch specific sites and report the movement of goods and vehicles. A comparable scheme, he indicated, preceded an earlier strike on his own home.

Beskrestnov urged Ukrainian businesses to spread their risk, avoid concentrating large volumes of trucks and goods in one place, rely on smaller warehouses, and rebuild their logistics.

Such measures, he emphasized, would reduce exposure to strikes and frustrate Russian attempts to engineer shortages of goods inside Ukraine.

Beskrestnov's figure tracks closely with Russia's estimated ballistic missile output, which has run at around 100 units a month—roughly 60 Iskander-M missiles alongside about 40 RM-48U rounds fired through S-400 systems. By mid-July, Russian forces had already launched 107 ballistic missiles in a single month, outpacing that production and drawing down stockpiles.

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