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Russia’s Offensive Goes Backward as Ukraine Regains Nearly 300 Square Kilometers Since March
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Russia lost ground in September while suffering more than 46,000 casualties—its worst monthly toll of 2026—as Ukrainian counteroffensives erased months of Russian gains, according to ISW.
Russian forces have lost control of nearly 300 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory since March 2026, while suffering their highest monthly casualty rate of the year in September, according to the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) October 1 assessment.
ISW said Russia’s territorial gains have slowed dramatically since March, at times becoming negative as Ukrainian forces launched successful counterattacks across several sectors.
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After adjusting for the timing of Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi, analysts assessed that Russian forces have lost a net 293.59 square kilometers across the front since March. Even when areas of Russian infiltration are included, Moscow expanded its presence by only 174.44 square kilometers over the same period.
ISW assessed that Russia seized 175.54 square kilometers during the month but lost 256.35 square kilometers, leaving Moscow with a net territorial loss of 80.81 square kilometers.
When Russian infiltration zones are also counted, the picture becomes even worse: Russian forces entered or seized 143.2 square kilometers while losing 318.38 square kilometers, a net difference of 175.18 square kilometers in Ukraine’s favor.
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At least 147 square kilometers liberated around Lyman during Operation Vivaldi became visible in ISW’s September mapping, although Ukrainian forces had actually conducted parts of the operation over several preceding months.
Ukraine deliberately kept much of Vivaldi concealed while the operation was underway, making exact month-to-month comparisons difficult. ISW therefore concluded that Russia likely achieved no net territorial gain at best in September—and probably lost ground overall.
Ukraine’s General Staff reported 46,320 Russian casualties in September, according to ISW—the highest monthly figure of 2026 and the third consecutive month in which Russian losses exceeded 40,000 personnel.
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Operation Vivaldi played a major role in reversing Russian gains around Lyman. The Ukrainian counteroffensive eliminated a Russian salient that had threatened the northern approaches to Sloviansk and disrupted Moscow’s plans for a broader maneuver around Ukraine’s Donetsk region defensive belt.
ISW assesses that the consequences may extend beyond the territory already retaken, as Ukrainian positions around Lyman could complicate future Russian attempts to advance toward Sloviansk from the east.
Earlier, internal Russian military documents revealed battlefield losses, mass unauthorized absences, suicides, and serious disciplinary problems inside Russia’s 127th Motor Rifle Division.
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