NATO Allies Agree Russia Could Be Ready to Attack by 2029, German General Says

NATO member nations have reached a consensus that Russia could possess the military capability to launch an attack against an Alliance country by 2029 or possibly sooner.

This assessment comes from intelligence data shared across all 32 NATO partners, according to Deutsche Welle on June 11.

While Russia continues its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has resulted in over 1.3 million reported Russian casualties and significant equipment losses, security officials warn that the threat to the Alliance is growing.

General-Lieutenant Christian Freuding, the Inspector of the German Army, stated that Germany and its allies must prepare for this scenario. Speaking during the ILA Berlin Air Show, he emphasized the urgency of the situation.

"We have to be ready to fight," he said. Freuding clarified that the 2029 timeline is not a calculation specific to Berlin, noting: "It’s intelligence, it’s NATO-coordinated. All 32 NATO partners agree that Russia could have the ability to invade a NATO partner country in 2029."

In response, Germany is accelerating its defense procurement and industrial production to bolster its military readiness. However, Freuding stressed that the government cannot rely solely on long-term equipment programs that take years to complete.

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"Speed is of the essence," he stated, adding that the military requires "interim solutions" to fill critical gaps in current capabilities.

He also maintained that Germany must improve its defense posture daily to ensure the army is prepared to transition to a defensive stance on short notice.

The Baltic region has become a recurring focus of NATO contingency planning, with allied militaries recently rehearsing the exact kind of scenario the new corps assignment is designed to confront.

Earlier in May, several hundred personnel from NATO nations conducted the Arrcade Strike command-and-control exercise at the abandoned Charing Cross subway station in central London.

The drill tested the Allied Rapid Reaction Corps' ability to coordinate operations involving up to 100,000 troops. Planners envisioned NATO forces defending Estonia from a Russian invasion projected for 2030, with member states activating Article 5   following a simulated incursion into Baltic territory.

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