Russia Cuts Coal Prices, Yet China and Türkiye Imports Keep Falling

Russian coal exports to China fell 10.8% year over year in January-August 2026 as higher logistics costs, import duties, and stronger competition eroded Moscow’s position in one of its key markets.

The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SZRU) reported the figures on its official website on October 4. Russian suppliers delivered 53.15 million tons of coal to China during the eight-month period, losing ground to Mongolia and Indonesia.

According to the agency, Mongolian coal imports surged 48.9% to 78.39 million tons, while Indonesia supplied 121 million tons. China imported 310 million tons of coal overall during the period.

Mongolia benefits from a shared land border with China and zero import duties, while Russian coal faces tariffs of 3% to 6%. Australia and Indonesia also receive zero-duty treatment under free-trade arrangements.

Russian producers are already offering discounts of around 10%, but further reductions could make exports unprofitable. Transport costs are adding further pressure, with the cost of shipping coal from Russia’s Vostochny port to China rising 45.5% from the start of 2026 through September 11.

Thermal coal exports could face the strongest pressure as Russian suppliers compete with Chinese mines while absorbing higher rail and freight costs. Russian railway tariffs increased again in October, while stronger demand for open freight wagons has raised transportation expenses.

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The agency added that the pressure is also spreading beyond China. Russian coking coal exports to Türkiye fell 30% during the first seven months of 2026, with no shipments recorded in July, while coal deliveries to Russia’s southern ports dropped 33% that month compared with June.

The slump in southern deliveries coincides with mounting maritime risks in the Black Sea, where Ukrainian drone attacks on commercial vessels bound for Novorossiysk have driven up shipping costs.

Shipowners have pulled dozens of coal-transporting vessels from the region or halted operations altogether, and bulk carrier availability dropped by 21% in a single month. In early August, carriers serving the route raised freight rates by up to fourfold, while war-risk insurance premiums climbed to double or triple base freight rates.

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