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Trump’s Russian Diesel Push Boosts Exports—But Not to the US
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Russian diesel exports doubled in October after the Trump administration eased sanctions and pressed Ukraine to pause strikes on Russian refineries, but none of the resulting shipments have reached the US, the Financial Times (FT) reported on November 12.
Russia shipped 271,000 barrels of diesel per day in October, up from 135,000 barrels per day in September, according to Kpler data cited by the FT.
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The increase followed US pressure on Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian refining infrastructure and an October 9 agreement between US President Donald Trump and the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, to increase fuel supplies to US and global markets.
A White House official told the FT that the additional Russian diesel entering global markets was intended to ease prices for American consumers.
“As the President has said, this is a deal for the world. This deal was made to add diesel supply to the global market—lowering prices for Americans and the world—which is exactly what will be done,” the official stated.
Russian diesel exports increased to Brazil, Turkey, and other markets, while shipments intended for the US have failed to arrive. At least two tankers initially heading for the US changed course in recent weeks, according to ship-tracking data cited by the FT.
A third vessel, the Agioi Fanendes, remains off the US East Coast carrying Russian diesel and awaiting a buyer. The White House official noted that negotiations with the tanker’s owner were continuing.
The agreement has faced opposition from both Democratic and Republican lawmakers, who questioned whether the arrangement complies with US law and urged Trump to reverse it. New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill also warned port and terminal operators to reject tankers carrying Russian diesel or risk penalties.
Energy Aspects estimated Russian diesel exports at 260,000 barrels per day in October, compared with 120,000 in September. That remained well below the five-year October average of about 700,000 barrels per day.
Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at Energy Aspects, attributed the temporary rebound to Russian refineries increasing output during Ukraine’s pause in strikes.
“If we want to attribute it, it would be the US pressure and Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire,” Bronze told the FT.
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Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian refineries on October 30 after a two-week pause. Russia has since extended its diesel export ban through the end of January, with some exceptions, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
The FT noted that analysts expect the rebound in Russian diesel exports to be short-lived. Sumit Ritolia of Kpler stated that Russian refinery operations remain under significant pressure and are expected to stay constrained at around 4 million barrels per day in the near term.
“Russian refinery operations remain under significant pressure. We expect them to remain constrained around 4mn b/d in the near term, with limited prospects for a meaningful recovery as attacks continue,” Ritolia stated.
By November 10, facilities hit since late October accounted for nearly 30% of Russia’s total refining capacity, with industry sources warning that actual processing volumes could fall by as much as 200,000 metric tons per day.
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