“We Are Preparing for War”: Poland Says Major Russian Provocation Could Be Months Away

Poland is preparing for the possibility of a full-scale war with Russia while warning that Moscow could stage a major provocation within the next several months, Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk said, according to Polsat News on August 17.

Tomczyk said Poland’s government and military are no longer treating a confrontation with Russia as an unthinkable scenario.

Warsaw is actively planning for how the country would operate under the worst possible conditions, even as officials hope those preparations never have to be put into practice.

“We are preparing for war, hoping that it will never begin,” Tomczyk said.

Poland’s preparations extend well beyond its armed forces. According to the deputy minister, Warsaw is also strengthening the country’s energy sector and critical infrastructure against the possibility of future aggression.

Tomczyk pointed to the SAN counter-drone system being developed under Poland’s East Shield program, describing it as a major element of the country’s preparations and “a huge, state-of-the-art anti-drone system, the most advanced in Europe.”

He said most of the system is being designed specifically for wartime conditions rather than routine peacetime operations.

“Eighty percent of this system’s capabilities are being built for wartime; only a small part of it may be usable in peacetime conditions. We are not building an army for a press conference. We are building it with the understanding that it must be ready to conduct operations in defense of the state under extremely unfavorable conditions, and we must have the tools to do that,” Tomczyk said.

This warning comes amid reports that Russia established at least 10 new or upgraded drone facilities near its borders with Belarus and Ukraine, including launch sites that could eventually place NATO territory, including Poland and its capital Warsaw, within range of Moscow’s most advanced long-range attack drones.

At the same time, Polish officials believe a direct war is not necessarily the most immediate danger.

Tomczyk warned that Russia could carry out a large-scale provocation within months, although he did not specify what form such an operation might take.

He said Warsaw has changed the way it evaluates threats and no longer divides potential scenarios into those considered realistic and unrealistic.

“We no longer divide scenarios into realistic and unrealistic, only into probable and improbable. Today, I would no longer set a deadline. Even some large-scale provocation by the Kremlin could just as well happen within a few months,” Tomczyk said.

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The warning comes amid growing concern in NATO about how quickly Russia could rebuild its military capabilities after its war of aggression against Ukraine.

Tomczyk referred to an assessment by NATO’s top commander in Europe, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, that Russia could restore enough military power by 2027 to pose a significantly greater threat to Europe.

Much, Tomczyk said, will depend on what happens in Ukraine.

“If this war ends, that would obviously be very good, but then it is highly likely that Russia will begin rebuilding its potential for the next armed conflict,” he said.

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For Warsaw, supporting Ukraine is therefore directly connected to Poland’s own security.

Tomczyk argued that Russia is not currently prepared for a direct confrontation with NATO and would lose such a war, pointing to Ukraine’s ability to hold back Russian forces despite the enormous imbalance in resources.

“Today, Putin’s Russia is not ready for a confrontation with NATO and would lose such a war. All the more so because we can see that Ukraine has stopped Russia—let alone the full potential of the Alliance. We must be aware of our own strength. Use it, put our affairs in order, support Ukraine, and keep Russia as far away from us as possible,” Tomczyk said.

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