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Could Drones Alone Force A NATO Country To Capitulate? Lithuanian Scenario Says Yes
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![Photo of Ivan Khomenko]( "Photo of Ivan Khomenko")
A Lithuanian analytical study suggests Russia could attempt to pressure Lithuania into capitulation within three months by launching a large-scale drone campaign without a ground invasion.
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According to Defense News on April 14, citing an assessment by the Vilnius-based Baltic Defense Initiative, the scenario outlines a potential campaign in which Russia deploys up to 170,000 long-range one-way attack drones over roughly 60 days.
The report argues such a volume could be sufficient to severely damage critical infrastructure and urban centers, including the capital, Vilnius.
The scenario is built on several geopolitical assumptions, including a reduced US focus on European security by 2027 due to potential military commitments elsewhere. The analysis also considers the possibility of shifting political dynamics within Europe that could weaken collective defense mechanisms.
The Baltic Defense Initiative estimates that, following an initial 90-day campaign targeting infrastructure, Russia could issue ultimatums to Baltic states, seeking concessions under the threat of expanded strikes against neighboring countries such as Latvia and Estonia.
The report also raises internal governance concerns. According to the study cited by Defense News, Lithuania’s current constitutional framework does not clearly define succession procedures in the event that top state leadership is incapacitated during sustained strikes.
The projection has been interpreted by regional observers as a planning scenario rather than a forecast. The publication of such estimates may be intended to accelerate defense preparedness measures across the Baltic region.
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