Is Russia Preparing a New “People’s Republic”? Estonia Probes Narva Separatist Campaign

A wave of pro-Russian social media posts promoting the idea of a “Narva People’s Republic” in eastern Estonia has raised alarm among Estonian security officials, who warn the campaign may be designed to destabilize the NATO member state, according to German newspaper BILD on March 15.

The campaign has appeared across Russian-language social media platforms in recent weeks, calling for the creation of a separatist entity in Narva, a city of about 50,000 residents located on Estonia’s eastern border with Russia.

Roughly 90% of the city’s population speaks Russian, making it a focal point for influence operations targeting the country’s Russian-speaking communities.

According to Estonian intelligence sources, the online messaging could represent an attempt to shape a narrative similar to the one used ahead of Russia’s intervention in eastern Ukraine in 2014, when Moscow-backed actors proclaimed so-called “people’s republics” in several regions.

At the time, Russian intelligence operatives and local collaborators declared separatist entities across several Russian-speaking areas in Ukraine.

Only the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” ultimately took hold after direct Russian military involvement and months of fighting.

Calls for sabotage and armed resistance

Since early March, messages circulating on platforms such as Telegram and VKontakte have called on supporters to distribute leaflets, carry out sabotage operations, and arm themselves.

The posts urge residents to proclaim the “Narva People’s Republic” and defend it by force against Estonia’s government, allegedly with support from the Russian military.

Some of the messaging uses slogans such as “Russians, we are not alone!” and “From Narva to Püssi stretches Russian land.”

Images shared online include maps and flags of the supposed republic, while masked individuals appear in videos urging supporters to “act together.”

Estonia calls it a disinformation campaign

Estonian authorities say the activity bears the hallmarks of an influence operation rather than a genuine grassroots movement.

According to Marta Tuule, spokesperson for Estonia’s security police agency KAPO, the posts are part of a disinformation campaign intended to sow confusion and undermine social cohesion.

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“Such techniques have already been used in Estonia and other countries,” Tuule said. “It is a simple and inexpensive method to create insecurity and intimidate society.”

She warned that involvement in the campaign could carry legal consequences.

“This is a provocation, and participation in it may have criminal consequences,” Tuule said.

Concerns about a broader geopolitical distraction

An Estonian intelligence source told BILD that the timing of the campaign is unlikely to be coincidental.

“It is no coincidence that this campaign is starting now, when the world’s attention is turning toward Iran,” the source said.

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According to the official, it remains unclear what the ultimate goal of the narrative may be.

“However, we cannot rule out that it is meant to prepare a Russian incursion similar to what happened in Ukraine in 2014,” the source warned.

Earlier, reports emerged that Europe faced over 150 hybrid attacks linked to Russia during the last four years.

Since February 2022, officials have documented 151 cases involving sabotage, arson, bombing attempts, and other hybrid threats.

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