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Moscow and Grozny Reportedly Draft Chechnya Succession Plans Amid Kadyrov Health Problems

Senior officials in Moscow and Grozny are drawing up contingency plans for a power transition in Russia’s Chechnya region as questions about Ramzan Kadyrov’s health intensify, according to Russian outlet Important Stories on January 23.
The outlet said the succession discussion was prompted after Kadyrov was urgently hospitalized in Moscow in late December and by Ukrainian media reports on January 11 that cited sources in Ukraine’s military intelligence as saying his kidneys had failed.
The Kremlin and Chechen authorities have made no public statements confirming those claims, and Important Stories quoted one source close to the Kremlin as saying that “while Kadyrov is alive, nothing will happen.”
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Important Stories said Kadyrov has been promoting his 18-year-old son, Adam, as a successor, but that Russian law would prevent him from formally leading the region until he turns 30 in 2037.
The outlet said one scenario being discussed is the appointment of an interim leader loyal to the Kadyrov family, with State Duma lawmaker Adam Delimkhanov and Chechen Prime Minister Magomed Daudov, both longstanding allies of Kadyrov, linked to the Benoy clan, described as leading candidates to preserve stability and protect the family.
Kadyrov’s control over armed units in Chechnya is a central factor in the Kremlin’s planning because those forces have been used to enforce his rule at home and to support Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Important Stories said the size of the forces under Kadyrov’s influence is not publicly known, citing The Insider’s estimate in 2022 of 18,000 to 20,000 fighters and noting that 25,000 personnel took part in a Grozny muster in January 2024.
Kadyrov has led Chechnya as a Kremlin loyalist since 2007, and Reuters has reported that Putin has given him wide latitude to run the mainly Muslim region in return for keeping it stable and aligned with Moscow.
Important Stories added that the Kremlin’s overriding demand in any succession plan is that Chechnya does not again become a source of instability, particularly as Russia continues its war against Ukraine.
Earlier, reporting noted a clash between Russian regular forces and a Chechen unit affiliated with Ramzan Kadyrov’s “Akhmat” formation in occupied Mariupol, underscoring the involvement of Chechen fighters within Russia’s war effort.
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