Putin and Trump Likely to Pursue Ukraine Ceasefire by April 20 or May 9

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are likely to seek a ceasefire in Ukraine before two significant upcoming dates: Easter (April 20) or Victory Day (May 9), according to high-ranking Ukrainian and Western officials, as reported by the Financial Times on February 13.

Officials suggest the timing could align with Easter, observed by both Orthodox and Catholic Churches, or May 9, when Russia marks the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany.

“Putin will want [a deal] on a notable day like this,” said a Ukrainian official.

Konstantin Malofeyev, a conservative Russian magnate who leads several Russian volunteer battalions fighting in Ukraine, remarked, “For the EU and Ukraine, it may be hard to hear this, but their opinion no longer matters.” He continued, “Ukraine is merely a reason for a grand dialogue between two major countries about the beginning of a new era in human history.”

Putin has told Trump that Russia seeks to “settle the causes” of Russia’s war against Ukraine,” signaling that Russia has not abandoned its goal of halting Ukraine’s aspirations to join the West and dismantling the post-Cold War security order.

Russia is also demanding that Ukraine cede control of four southeastern regions, none of which are fully under Russian control, and expects the West to lift all sanctions imposed since 2014.

“The most important thing for Russia is for Ukraine to have the weakest security guarantees possible,” said Alexander Gabuev, a Russia expert. “Ideally they want Ukraine to remain a country with no investment potential that’s as weak as possible and tearing apart internally.”

With Russia holding an advantage on the battlefield, Putin may choose to continue the war if Trump does not agree to all his demands, according to Dmitry Trenin, a professor at the Moscow School of Economics.

“Russia is serious about the need to solve the Ukraine issue. It is not suing for peace. It knows that the only guarantees it can rely on are those it can provide itself,” Trenin said. “A deal that falls short of Russia’s vital security requirements would only guarantee that there will be another war soon. Russia will not permit that.”

He added: “The fighting will not stop with the start of the talks; and if there is no deal, it will go on.”

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that if the United States and Russia engage in talks about ending the war without Ukraine’s participation, Kyiv will not recognize any such agreements.