Putin Must Accept Russia Cannot Achieve Victory in Ukraine, Kellogg Says

The end of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will depend on Russian leader Vladimir Putin recognizing that a military victory is no longer possible, former US special envoy General Keith Kellogg said in an interview with the Japanese television channel NHK on March 12. 

While the front lines remain a central focus of the war, Kellogg noted that mounting internal pressure on the Kremlin—driven by the immense human and economic costs—could ultimately influence Moscow’s calculations.

“Putin must realize that he will not get any more Ukrainian land, and also recognize Russia's inability to win the war,” Kellogg said.

The general emphasized that the Russian Federation continues to suffer significant damage as a result of international sanctions. Furthermore, human losses at the front could reach between 1.2 to 1.4 million killed and seriously wounded.

Kellogg noted that the Russian leader is well-informed about the country's damages and losses due to the war he unleashed and fears responsibility for his actions. 

“Putin is concerned that he could become another Nicholas II, the last Russian tsar, who was shot after his abdication,” Kellogg remarked.

A ceasefire is currently possible if both sides agree to freeze the situation along the current front line. However, Kellogg points out that the obstacle remains the Kremlin's demands.

“It is Putin, not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who does not want a ceasefire and demands that Ukrainian troops withdraw from Donbas, while Ukraine refuses to give up the territories under its control,” Kellogg added. 

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At the end of last month, Kellogg also criticized the US position after it abstained from a UN General Assembly resolution supporting a lasting peace in Ukraine.

Ukrainian intelligence obtained classified Russian documents which revealed that the irreversible losses of the Russian army had exceeded 1.3 million people.

The report highlighted a significant shift in the ratio of casualties, noting that 62% of these losses were fatalities while 38% were injuries. 

Following a briefing from Military Intelligence head Oleh Ivashchenko, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that there were reasons to believe these figures were actually understated. 

Additionally, the intelligence indicated that the Kremlin aimed to exploit tensions in the Middle East to divert global attention away from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

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