Russia Brags About Deploying Oreshnik Missiles in Belarus—Without a Single Launcher in Sight

Russia has officially announced the deployment of its new Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile system in Belarus—but the public rollout conspicuously avoided showing the system’s most important component: the missile launcher itself, Ukrainian defense media outlet Defense Express reported on December 30.

According to footage released by Russian state media, Strategic Rocket Forces units staged a ceremonial display in Belarus, presenting what Moscow claims is the first Oreshnik missile complex placed on combat duty.

However, as Defense Express notes, the video shows only a small number of auxiliary vehicles, while the actual mobile launcher for the ballistic missile is nowhere to be seen.

No missile launcher, no real combat duty

Despite Oreshnik being described by Russian officials as a medium-range ballistic missile system, the footage revealed just three vehicles: a security armored vehicle, a communications vehicle, and a support vehicle.

The self-propelled launcher—the core of any ballistic missile system—was absent.

Analysts at Defense Express point out that this omission is critical. A single missile complex would normally include multiple launchers, a command post, extensive communications equipment, and a much larger personnel presence.

Instead, the video showed roughly 70 servicemembers—far fewer than what would be expected for even one fully operational unit.

As a result, Defense Express assesses that there is no evidence that the Oreshnik system is currently on actual combat duty in Belarus.

A staged debut, not an operational deployment

While the Kremlin framed the event as a strategic milestone, the limited equipment on display suggests something closer to a symbolic or preparatory move rather than a functional deployment.

This does not rule out Russia gradually building a Strategic Rocket Forces presence in Belarus, but analysts believe full operational readiness is unlikely before 2026 at the earliest, according to Defense Express.

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Familiar vehicles, old design logic

Even the vehicles that were shown raised eyebrows among defense analysts. The convoy was led by a Ural-63095 Typhoon-U armored vehicle, followed by a support vehicle and a communications truck.

Defense Express notes that both the support and communications vehicles appear nearly identical to those used with Russia’s Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system.

One of the support vehicles, in particular, appears to be a combat duty support unit—effectively a mobile shelter containing sleeping quarters and a field kitchen rather than any launch or command capability.

This similarity reinforces a theory long discussed by Defense Express: that the Oreshnik missile is likely derived from the Yars platform, possibly by removing one stage to create a medium-range system.

Analysts compare this approach to earlier Soviet missile development cycles, where systems like the RSD-10 Pioneer were derived from earlier designs through staged modifications.

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What Moscow didn’t say matters most

By choosing to showcase logistics and support vehicles instead of the launcher itself, Russia may be signaling that Oreshnik remains more of a concept than a deployed weapon.

Defense Express emphasizes that without visual confirmation of launchers, command infrastructure, and full personnel deployment, claims of “combat duty” should be treated with skepticism.

Earlier, reports emerged that Ukraine’s Security Service and military intelligence destroyed one of Russia’s top-secret “Oreshnik” strategic missile systems during a covert operation at the Kapustin Yar testing range.

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