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Russia Could Be Ready to Launch New War Within a Year, Swedish Intelligence Warns
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Sweden’s military intelligence has warned that Russia could be capable of launching a new war against another country within approximately one year, even while continuing its full-scale war against Ukraine, Militarnyi reported on February 17, citing an assessment by Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST).
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According to the assessment, Russia maintains a strategic ambition to confront the West and is adapting its economy, industry, and armed forces for a prolonged war scenario. Although much of its conventional military capacity is currently committed in Ukraine, Moscow continues rebuilding its forces and expanding its defense industrial base.
The report notes that Russia has already significantly increased the production of weapons, ammunition, and military systems, while reorganizing command structures and reinforcing units. This regeneration capacity could allow it to recover enough military power to pose a new direct threat to other countries within a relatively short timeframe.
Swedish analysts warn that the Kremlin does not need to achieve full readiness to pose a risk. Even a limited capability could be sufficient to launch regional military operations, particularly against countries perceived as vulnerable or with weaker defensive capacity.
The assessment also highlights that Russia is gaining critical experience in modern combat through its war against Ukraine, including the extensive use of drones, electronic warfare, precision strikes, and sustained industrial mobilization. These lessons could increase the effectiveness of its forces in future conflicts.
Additionally, the report emphasizes that Russia’s leadership continues to demonstrate a high tolerance for human and economic losses, allowing the Kremlin to sustain military operations over long periods and plan new confrontation scenarios.
Swedish defense officials warned that this evolution represents a direct threat to European security, particularly for countries on NATO’s eastern flank. Sweden, which formally joined the alliance in 2024, has begun strengthening its defensive capabilities in response to the deteriorating regional security environment.
This warning comes alongside growing signs of Russian militarization in other strategic regions. As previously reported, NATO launched the “Arctic Sentry” mission to counter Russia’s military buildup in the Arctic, a region where Moscow is expanding infrastructure, reinforcing its naval presence, and consolidating key strategic capabilities.
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