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Russia Faces 40% Aviation Meltdown by 2030 as Sanctions Bite Deep
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Russia’s civil aviation fleet could lose roughly a third of its aircraft and 200 helicopters by 2030 under a “pessimistic” scenario, the head of the Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsia), Dmitry Yadrov, told a Federation Council committee on October 7.
“We jointly estimate the retirement of about 339 aircraft… and 200 helicopters,” Yadrov said, adding that 1,088 of the country’s 1,135 civil aircraft were currently in service as of October 6. “This is 230 domestically built airframes… and 109 foreign ones,” he said.
He also warned that “a couple of dozen” Sukhoi Superjets could exit service due to engine issues with the Franco-Russian SaM146.
Industry figures say the projected retirements would hit local and regional routes hardest, where aging An-2, An-24 and An-26 aircraft are prevalent and increasingly difficult to maintain.
An aviation expert quoted by The Insider argued that, without sanction relief or a surge in domestic output, “local routes can be buried, the same with regional routes,” as legacy Antonov fleets “will retire very quickly” with no certified replacements.
Rosaviatsia maintains that new domestic deliveries could offset losses if manufacturers meet plans to supply “about half a thousand” aircraft by 2030, and that regulators are extending component lifecycles—such as raising SaM146 engine limits—to keep jets flying safely. “In that case, even the pessimistic forecast would be fully neutralized,” Yadrov said.
The outlook comes amid continued pressure on Russia’s civil aviation ecosystem: Moscow has asked the UN’s International Civil Aviation Organization to ease sanctions on parts and overflights, arguing restrictions undermine safety, while the ICAO Assembly last week formally condemned Russia over GPS interference in Europe—actions that underscore the sector’s isolation.
Signs of strain are also visible in maintenance and sourcing. Recent trade press reports say Aeroflot group companies are set to dismantle Boeing 737-800BCF and 747-400 freighters to provide spares for passenger fleets, reflecting limited access to certified parts since 2022.
Earlier, it was reported that sanctions are crippling Russia’s aircraft production, with leaked internal files showing critical equipment outages and reliance on Soviet-era machinery.
