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Russia Has Just 3 Oreshnik Missiles—But Wants Europe to Fear an Arsenal
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![Photo of Ivan Khomenko]( "Photo of Ivan Khomenko")
Russia possesses only three to four units of its new medium-range ballistic missile system Oreshnik, but intends to begin serial production in 2026, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR).
In an interview with Ukrinform on January 24, Oleh Luhovskyi, First Deputy Head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, said the Russian Ministry of Defense plans to start manufacturing at least five Oreshnik missiles per year beginning this year.
“We know that the Russian Ministry of Defense intends to launch Oreshnik into serial production in 2026 and acquire the capacity to produce five or more such missiles annually,” Luhovskyi stated.
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According to Luhovskyi, the Oreshnik missile is more significant as a geopolitical signal than as a military asset. He described it as “primarily a tool for intimidating Ukraine’s European partners,” noting that the system’s combat performance is “dubious” and reliant on outdated technology.
He added that the missile requires “constant technical support and immediate troubleshooting of various failures,” further questioning its operational value.
Ukrainian intelligence believes the system is built on legacy Soviet-era designs from the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology. The missile used in a 2024 strike on Ukraine’s Lviv region reportedly lacked a guidance system for its warhead.
However, debris from the attack suggested the presence of a pressurized instrument compartment and a gas-dynamic orientation system—components typical of Russian multistage ballistic systems.
Ukraine estimates that Russia currently holds no more than 3–4 Oreshnik missiles. Despite the limited inventory, Russian military planners appear committed to scaling production capacity in the coming months.
Earlier, on January 9, Russia launched an Oreshnik missile at Ukraine’s Lviv region in what appeared to be a psychological strike rather than a kinetic one. The missile, reportedly launched without a warhead, targeted infrastructure and followed a ballistic trajectory consistent with the Oreshnik system.
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