Russia Plans Fake Attack to Sabotage Peace Negotiations, Ukrainian Intelligence Warns

Russia is continuing a special operation aimed at derailing peace negotiations mediated by the United States, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) on January 2.

Following what Moscow described as an alleged “attack on Putin’s residence,” Russian authorities have intensified the dissemination of newly fabricated information narratives designed to prepare both domestic and international audiences for further escalation.

“With a high degree of probability, we forecast a transition from manipulative information influence to an armed provocation by Russian special services with significant civilian casualties,” the intelligence service said in its statement.

SZRU assesses that the expected timing of such a provocation could coincide with, or take place shortly before, celebrations of Christmas according to the Julian calendar. A religious site or another location with strong symbolic significance in Russia or in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine could be selected as the target.

The statement also warns that Russia plans to fabricate evidence implicating Ukraine by using fragments of Western-made strike drones. These remnants would allegedly be transported from the line of contact and planted at the site of the provocation to support false accusations.

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“Exploiting fear and carrying out terrorist acts with human casualties under a ‘false flag’ fully corresponds to the operational style of Russian special services,” the intelligence service noted.

According to the assessment, the Putin regime has repeatedly employed such tactics within Russia itself, and this same model is now being exported abroad—a trend that Ukrainian intelligence says is indirectly confirmed by public statements from senior Russian officials.

Earlier, US officials said the CIA has concluded that Ukraine was not responsible for targeting a residence used by Russian leader Vladimir Putin in a recent drone incident in northern Russia, an assessment that runs counter to claims Putin conveyed during a phone call with President Donald Trump.

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