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Russia Tries to Split Ukraine’s Power Grid Into “Energy Islands,” ISW Warns
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Russia is attempting to fracture Ukraine’s power grid by carving it into isolated “energy islands” cut off from electricity generation and transmission, according to a new assessment by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released on January 18.
ISW analysts point to recent warnings from Ukraine’s military intelligence and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who have said Russia is considering strikes on substations linked to nuclear power plants.
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“Russia seeks to disconnect nuclear power plants from Ukraine’s energy system, leaving Ukrainian civilians without electricity and heat,” Ukraine’s intelligence service warned.
ISW noted that recent Russian attacks have already placed Ukrainian-controlled nuclear facilities at risk. International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi said that military activity over the past week, beginning January 12, damaged a critical electrical substation supplying the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant.
IAEA teams have also reported heightened military activity or air raid alerts at all five of Ukraine’s nuclear sites, underscoring what analysts describe as an increasingly fragile energy security environment.
In this context, ISW highlighted the scale of Ukraine’s winter energy challenge. According to Zelenskyy, Ukraine currently needs about 18 gigawatts of electricity to meet domestic demand during the winter months, but is producing only around 11 gigawatts.
“That figure would likely drop significantly if Russian strikes disconnect one or more Ukrainian nuclear power plants from the grid,” ISW analysts wrote.
Nuclear generation remains a backbone of Ukraine’s power system, meaning even temporary disruptions could have outsized effects on heating, water supply, and other critical services.
ISW reiterated its broader assessment that Moscow is pursuing a deliberate strategy to break Ukraine’s integrated power network apart.
The think tank assesses that Russia is “attempting to divide Ukraine’s energy system and create energy islands cut off from generation, supply, and transmission systems.”
“Russian forces are striking Ukraine’s energy grid in an effort to split it into two parts along an east–west fault line,” the report said.
An energy island (or power island) refers to a section of an electrical grid that operates independently, disconnected from the main network, either intentionally for maintenance/resilience or unintentionally due to faults, creating a self-sufficient unit with local generation and consumption.
Analysts argue that such fragmentation would make repairs more difficult, limit the ability to reroute power during emergencies, and amplify the humanitarian impact of future strikes—particularly during periods of peak winter demand.
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the introduction of a state of emergency in Ukraine’s energy sector, as the country grapples with widespread power and heating outages caused by ongoing Russian strikes and worsening winter conditions.
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