Russia's Battlefield Advantage Over Ukraine May Diminish by Year-End, Says US Military Expert

American military expert Michael Kofman believes that Russia's numerical advantage over Ukraine could start to decline by the end of this year.

In an interview with Business Insider, Kofman pointed out that despite the pressure Russia is exerting on Ukraine, its forces are experiencing significant depletion and facing serious limitations.

"Russia's advantage on the battlefield is likely to decrease as we approach winter and continue into 2025," said Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in Russian affairs.

While Kofman emphasized that Russia will not run out of resources in the immediate future, he noted that the pace of its offensive operations is expected to substantially slow down. This shift could provide Ukraine with renewed hope, as Russian advances in the east remain sluggish and come at a high cost in personnel and equipment, the publication reads.

One key factor contributing to this situation is Russia's increasing reliance on outdated Soviet-era equipment, which is in limited supply. "Russia is using remnants of its Soviet legacy, but the production rates of new equipment are not keeping pace with battlefield losses," Kofman stated.

This situation forces Russian troops to adapt their tactics to minimize losses, but it also complicates their ability to achieve significant breakthroughs.

Moreover, Russia is encountering difficulties in recruiting new soldiers. The high bonuses the Kremlin is offering to recruits indicate strain in this area. For instance, in July, Russia advertised salaries comparable to those of American military personnel, which is unusual given the country's average wage, says Kofman.

British intelligence has also reported high levels of Russian casualties, estimating that Russia could lose up to 1,000 soldiers per day during the winter months. Despite ongoing activity on the eastern front, the situation remains challenging for Russian forces.

The ongoing combat operations have serious implications not only for the situation on the front lines but also for the Russian economy. The country's budget is heavily directed toward military spending, which accounts for about 40% of total expenditures. While Russia's economy showed growth in 2023, long-term prospects remain uncertain. Some analysts believe that if production slows, the defense sector may no longer be able to support the economy, potentially leading to a recession.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is actively developing its own defense industry, producing missiles, artillery, and drones to help counter Russian pressure on the front lines.