- Category
- Latest news
Russia’s Debt Forecast Near $3T by 2042 as War Drains Falling Oil Revenues
- Authors
![Photo of Roman Kohanets]( "Photo of Roman Kohanets")
-111f0e5095e02c02446ffed57bfb0ab1.jpeg "Photo of Roman Kohanets")
Russia’s government plans to lift state debt by roughly $2.5 trillion over the next 17 years to cover budget shortfalls projected through 2042, according to The Moscow Times on December 16.
The long-term budget forecast, approved by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, envisages total state debt rising to approximately $3.0 trillion by 2042, from approximately $485 billion this year.
Every article pushes back against disinformation. Your support keeps our team in the field.
The government plans annual borrowing equal to 0.5% of GDP in the second half of the 2020s, accelerating to 0.7% in the early 2030s, 1% in the mid-2030s, and 1.2%–1.3% by the early 2040s, it said.
Oil and gas revenues—historically the main budget anchor—are forecast to halve from 4% to 1.9% of GDP, reflecting resource depletion and changing tax incentives.
As a result, annual borrowing will become structural, rising from 0.5% to over 1% of GDP by the 2040s.
With the National Wealth Fund nearly depleted (~$50 billion) and minimal foreign borrowing options, domestic banks and the Central Bank will absorb most new debt issuance.
The Moscow Times cited Peterson Institute for International Economics senior fellow Elina Ribakova as saying Russian banks have become the main buyers of state debt, supported by central bank liquidity, and said repo operations secured by government bonds reached about $40 billion as of Dec. 15.
Earlier, it was reported that Russia moved to sharply curb withdrawals from its National Wealth Fund after liquid reserves fell to around $50 billion, shifting more deficit financing toward borrowing and new taxes.
-29ed98e0f248ee005bb84bfbf7f30adf.jpg)
