The Security Guarantees Europe Needs Against Russia’s Next War

Putin’s outrageous war against Ukraine will leave indelible scars on the country called Russia today, but Russians do not care. They easily sacrifice their very future, economic growth, and human capital development for what they are told to do: be mouth-tapped and be ready to die in exchange for cash handouts, and they readily do. These cyclical spirals of generational obfuscation, indoctrination, and feverish imperialism will repeat themselves on end, and it would serve them right had it not encroached on other territories and sovereignty. The Russian outlook is based on killing and looting. It does not make life easier for us Ukrainians, but it gives you a good understanding of who you are dealing with without wishful thinking or self-appeasement.

Lessons from history 

Ukraine has always instilled inferiority feeling in Russia since its very inception as fiefdom of Mongols’ Golden Horde and onwards through history from Muscovy to Muscovite Russia to Empire under Peter I and to later stages as part of Union of Soviet Republics under wily Lenin, blood-drenched Stalin (Putin’s role model) and a number of gerontocratic rulers until the final collapse of socialism with “human face” under younger Gorbachev (the biggest tragedy of the XX century according to Putin’s state of mind). This is not a mere set of brief historical facts. Russia always turned to Ukraine when it needed new ideas, ingenuity, and brains. All seminal Russian ideologies—great and big—were devised by Ukrainians. Some of them were misused to turn Russia into Empire with expansionist aspirations to grab more and more land. 

These aspirations never stopped, as never stopped the grudge towards Ukraine. The biggest dream has always been to subjugate Ukraine, no matter what—by ruse, bluff, subterfuge, or crude force manifested in war.

It tells the whole story of why security guarantees for Ukraine are so important. History repeats itself, and it takes one to be strong enough to fend off the attack that will most likely happen again if you are weak. 

The idea behind security guarantees is simple. Russia should never want to restart a war against Ukraine or against any other country in Europe, Central Asia, or the Caucasus in the foreseeable future. If Russia does not want to live in peace, develop, and prosper, let it be isolated, only to collapse. That’s fair compensation for Russia’s folly of war. 

How will security guarantees for Ukraine work?

To make security work, Ukraine should become an unassailable fortress. And it should be well guaranteed. Geopolitically it will save the world from hotbed of destabilization and constant fear of imminent danger of invasion.

Security is, of course, prioritized. 

1. In the case of Ukraine, priority number one is the sustainable and capable defense and security forces in a position to defend the country now and deter any future war. The strength and number of the Ukrainian Armed Forces should be at a level sufficient to repel possible armed aggression, but not less than 800,000 personnel. Security is costly, but it’s a common cause, and maintenance of the defense forces will require co-financing until lasting peace is established and the economy regains full force. 

2. Second by number but not by importance is a multi-layered air defense—from fighter jets to SAM systems capable of countering ballistic threats to drone interceptors and electronic warfare capabilities—to close all airspace under Ukraine's control. This protective shield should be complemented by modern land, sea, and air military equipment, long-range artillery, and firepower. 

3. The third priority is developing Ukraine's defense industry, including through investment and co-production, exchange of technologies and experience, and financing the production of Ukrainian weapons (long-range weapons, including short—and medium-range missiles, drones, drone interceptors, artillery, armored vehicles, and ammunition).

4. Sensitive information sharing, including the exchange of intelligence data, contributes to a better understanding of real threats in real time and ramps up resilience for preemptive actions. It’s an early warning system that allows for being prepared in advance and reducing the resources needed to contain potential acts of aggression. This cooperation is a win-win for geopolitical stability and is viable with “Five Eyes” countries, where the USA takes the lead. The same is true for IT and cyberspace, which have grown into another battlefield with cyber warfare and hybrid threats disrupting digital infrastructure and taking a toll on everything that runs on digital platforms.

5. One of the main deterrents of the next Russian aggression was suggested to be the deployment to Ukraine of a reassurance force—the “Multinational Force Ukraine” once the present hostilities have ceased. This concept came out of the Coalition of the Willing alliance, chaired initially by the UK and France. And it remains a solid basis to strengthen security across the European continent. Such a contingent of the willing countries under their flags, with a backstop from the USA, could play the following roles:

• In the event of attacks against Ukraine with missiles, drones, or other means of air attack, the Reassurance Forces will repel, with Ukraine's consent, attacks on Ukrainian territory from the air;

• In the event of ground attacks against Ukraine, the Reassurance Forces will intensify the defense of the regions of Ukraine under attack,

• The pressing point of security for Ukraine starting from now is joint patrolling of the airspace along Ukraine's western borders, the airspace under Ukraine's control, and over Ukraine's territorial waters. In the event of armed aggression against Ukraine from the sea, the Coalition, in coordination with Türkiye (Montreux Convention ), shall take measures to counter the attack and protect Ukraine's maritime borders.

6. Security cannot be reliable without economic stability and resilience. In this context, reconstruction and recovery efforts are in focus, with a view to creating conditions conducive to promoting Ukraine's economic prosperity, including its energy security.

7. Russia must pay for the damage and losses it inflicted on Ukraine and Ukrainians by its armed aggression. This includes restitution (restoration to the original state), compensation (monetary payment), and satisfaction, in cooperation with the International Compensation Mechanism, as well as the use of Russia's frozen assets abroad and the proceeds from them.

8. The partners will initially need technical and financial support to meet Ukraine's urgent needs caused by Russia's armed aggression, enable Ukraine to continue implementing an effective reform agenda, promote good governance, including budget support, ensure Ukraine's energy security, and restore its critical civilian infrastructure.

9. The Article 5-style guarantee will only be effective if each Coalition participant recognizes that an armed attack against any of them in territories under Ukraine’s control would be a threat to its own peace and security and declares that it will take measures to counter the common threat in accordance with its constitutional provisions and procedures. 

10. To be always ready, Ukraine shall provide opportunities on its territories for strategic reserves of weapons, military equipment, and ammunition that may be used by Ukraine in the event of renewed armed aggression against it.  

11. Establishing an International Reserve Fund for Ukraine would be a very reasonable idea to ensure financial stability and opportunities for emergency financing of arms purchases in the event of renewed armed aggression against Ukraine. Ukraine may use the Reserve Fund after notifying its partners of the resumption of armed aggression against it.

This is an outline of what can make Ukraine strong enough to take on the challenge and be secure in the face of a constant threat from Russia. The strongest security guarantee for Ukraine is its membership in the European Union.

Fundraiser For Peaceful Nights

$1,500,000 towards 10 Ukrainian AI-Controlled Turrets.

Donate