#Sanctions Circumvention

Bearings—small but indispensable components—are the lifeblood of heavy machinery, from tanks to drones. Despite international sanctions banning their export to Russia, the Kremlin continues to secure these critical parts, often involving third-country intermediaries and re-export schemes, including from manufacturers in the EU and Japan.

2025 marks the first year since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine that Russia’s oil and gas revenue will fall short of covering military expenditures. Russia urgently needs to develop new methods to circumvent sanctions or reduce spending, including on the war effort.

$5 billion worth of Western-sanctioned goods disappeared during transit through Russia, a country already the most sanctioned in the world. Despite this, Russia continues to evade sanctions, with one suspected method being a fake transit scheme. What is it and how does it work?