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Belarus Modernizes Infrastructure for Russian Aggression Near NATO Borders by 2027
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Belarus could be ready for full-scale participation in a wider Russian war by spring or mid-2027 as military infrastructure and arms production expand toward NATO borders, Centrum Europy reported on October 14.
The report, prepared by the Belarusian democratic forces’ analytical center BELPOL together with the underground Association of Belarusian Railway Workers, was presented in Warsaw. Centrum Europy noted that its authors relied on open sources, leaked documents, and information they claimed was obtained after “bribing Russian generals.”
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According to Centrum Europy, BELPOL identified a secure military communications network being built across Belarus from east to west, rather than radiating outward from Minsk. The group argued that its layout is designed to support the movement of Russian forces from the Russian border toward Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Ukraine.
“This network is being built from east to west, along Belarus’s largest roads and highways,” BELPOL representative Maćwiej Kuprejczyk told Centrum Europy. “The center of this system is not in Belarus.”
Centrum Europy also detailed Russian-funded railway modernization connecting Belarus with Ukraine and NATO states, including stronger tracks, new unloading ramps, sidings to ammunition depots, and infrastructure for underground fuel storage.
BELPOL assessed that these upgrades could allow Russian divisions and heavy equipment to move rapidly toward NATO borders without first concentrating forces in eastern Belarus.
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Particular attention was given to routes leading toward the Suwałki Gap, the narrow area connecting Poland and Lithuania that links the Baltic states with the rest of NATO.
Centrum Europy reported that BELPOL representatives claimed Russian commanders had described the infrastructure as potentially useful for an operation aimed at seizing the corridor and cutting Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia off from Poland.
BELPOL also identified around 120 Belarusian companies producing or preparing to produce for the Russian Armed Forces. The report described new defense plants and civilian factories being converted for military output, including a facility expected to assemble 122 mm rockets for BM-21 Grad launchers.
“The preliminary date when everything will be ready is the beginning or middle of 2027,” Kuprejczyk stated.
He added that most facilities were expected to reach maximum production capacity by March 2027, with the remainder reaching full capacity by midyear.
Asked by Centrum Europy whether that meant Belarus could be ready for war by spring 2027, Kuprejczyk answered affirmatively.
BELPOL maintained that the buildup could support Russian operations not only against Ukraine but potentially against NATO’s Baltic members.
Centrum Europy noted that BELPOL had already warned in 2024 that Belarus under Alexander Lukashenko was preparing for deeper involvement in Russia’s war and potentially for operations against NATO states. The group now argues that the continuing expansion of railways, communications networks, and military production has made that scenario more concrete.
Days earlier, masked individuals crossing from Belarus damaged Latvian border surveillance equipment and stole cameras before retreating back across the frontier.
Latvian authorities also reported that armed masked individuals had accompanied migrants toward the border, describing the episode as part of continued provocations and hybrid activity targeting Latvia and NATO’s eastern flank.
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