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Gripen Is Coming to Ukraine. Now France Is Hinting Rafale May Be Next
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![Photo of Vlad Litnarovych]( "Photo of Vlad Litnarovych")
As Ukraine moves closer to receiving Swedish Gripen fighter jets, France has hinted that Rafale aircraft could also eventually join Ukraine’s Air Force—though the timeline for such a move remains far from clear, Defense Express reported on June 1.
The comment came from French Ambassador to Sweden Thierry Carlier after Ukraine and Sweden moved toward a firm agreement for 20 new JAS 39 Gripen E/F fighters, with 16 used Gripen C/D aircraft expected as part of the broader package.
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The first used Gripen deliveries are expected this winter, while new Gripen deliveries are planned for 2030.
In a social media post, Carlier congratulated Ukraine and Sweden on the milestone and added that together with France’s Mirage 2000-5 and Rafale fighters, which he said would also “soon arrive,” Ukraine’s Air Force would “win in the sky.”
The reference to Mirage 2000-5 fighters is easy to explain. France has already transferred three of these aircraft to Ukraine, one of which has been lost, and plans to provide the same number again from its own Air Force.
👏👏 Congratulations to 🇸🇪 and 🇺🇦 for this huge step ! Gripen is a fantastic fighter. With 🇨🇵 Mirage 2000-5, and Rafale also coming soon, 🇺🇦 Air Force to win in 🇺🇦 sky !@FranceinSweden https://t.co/veiH7GPQeA pic.twitter.com/yAgFDa0UiD
— Carlier Thierry (@CarlierThierr11) May 30, 2026
Paris is also negotiating with Athens over a possible transfer of 10 Mirage 2000-5 fighters from the Greek Air Force. Defense Express noted that the French diplomat’s post included an image of a Greek Mirage 2000-5, likely pointing to those talks.
The Rafale reference is much more intriguing. So far, the only known plan involving Rafale fighters for Ukraine is Kyiv’s previously discussed intention to purchase 100 aircraft.
But even if Ukraine ordered Rafales today, expecting them to arrive “soon” would be difficult. Dassault Aviation’s current Rafale order backlog stands at around 220 aircraft, and that number may grow by another 114 jets this year if India finalizes a major expected order.
Production is also limited. Dassault produced 26 Rafale fighters in 2025 and plans to build 28 in 2026.
That means if Ukraine signs a firm Rafale contract, the first deliveries would most likely be expected not “soon,” but sometime in the 2030s.
By comparison, Sweden’s Saab, which has a less crowded production queue, is expected to deliver Ukraine’s first new Gripen aircraft only in 2030. Future Gripen production for Ukraine, potentially covering 100 to 150 aircraft, is expected to include localization inside Ukraine.
Defense Express notes that the only realistic way Rafales could arrive in Ukraine quickly would be through the transfer of used aircraft from the French Air Force.
That scenario has not been publicly discussed, but it is not impossible. Greece and Croatia both previously acquired used Rafale fighters from France, ordering 12 second-hand aircraft each in 2020 and 2021.
Still, such a move would be politically and militarily difficult for Paris. France’s Air Force has already argued that it needs 230 fighter aircraft in service, rather than the current 185, of which around 100 are Rafales.
The relatively small number of older Mirage 2000-5 fighters pledged to Ukraine also suggests that France may be cautious about giving up combat aircraft from its own inventory.
At the same time, Paris has already surprised observers once before. France had repeatedly denied the possibility of sending Mirage 2000-5 fighters to Ukraine and training Ukrainian pilots on them—before eventually doing exactly that.
For now, the Gripen track is far more concrete. Ukraine is moving toward Swedish fighters in both used C/D and new E/F versions. But the French ambassador’s mention of Rafale suggests that Ukraine’s future fighter fleet may not stop with F-16s, Mirage 2000s, and Gripens.
Earlier, reports emerged that Ukraine will receive Swedish Gripen fighter jets together with weapons, including long-range Meteor air-to-air missiles capable of striking enemy aircraft at distances of more than 200 kilometers.
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