- Category
- War in Ukraine
From F-16 to Gripen, Ukraine’s Fighter Fleet Could Look Very Different by 2030
Prefer U24 Media on Google
- Authors
![Photo of Vlad Litnarovych]( "Photo of Vlad Litnarovych")
F-16s were only the beginning. With Mirage fighters already arriving and Gripen now entering the picture, here’s how Ukraine’s air force could look like in the years ahead.
Ukraine could have between 96 and 129 Western fighter jets in service by the early 2030s under a realistic scenario involving F-16s, Mirage 2000s, and Swedish Gripens, Defense Express reported on June 1.
The estimate comes as Ukraine moves closer to adding Swedish JAS 39 Gripen fighters to its Air Force. Kyiv and Stockholm have officially announced plans involving both used Gripen C/D aircraft and newer Gripen E jets.
We bring you stories from the ground. Your support keeps our team in the field.
If a firm contract for the Gripen E is signed, it would become Ukraine’s first-ever purchase agreement for newly built modern fighter aircraft.
Deliveries of used Gripen aircraft are expected to begin next year, while deliveries of new Gripen E fighters could start from 2030.
Defense Express assessed how many Western fighter jets Ukraine could realistically have by the beginning of the 2030s, starting with the F-16, which currently makes up the largest share of Ukraine’s Western combat aircraft fleet.
An exclusive account from an F-16 pilot on how Ukraine made the journey from exhausting diplomatic negotiations to the first victorious “Target destroyed.”
— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) January 7, 2026
Watch the full story ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/7r5vE4cYCw
According to the outlet, taking into account aircraft already lost, Ukraine currently has up to 39 F-16s delivered by the Netherlands and Denmark. Norway is expected to provide another six aircraft, while Belgium has officially pledged up to 30 F-16s.
Belgium’s case remains more complex. Although 30 aircraft have been officially discussed, recent reports suggested Brussels could transfer all 53 of its F-16s. However, it remains unclear how many of them would be operational. Belgium has said its aircraft transfers should be completed by the end of 2029.
Norway has not specified when its six F-16s will be delivered, but Defense Express suggests they could also arrive before 2030.
That means Ukraine could have between 75 and 98 F-16s by 2030, not counting potential additional donors such as Portugal, which is looking for a replacement for its own F-16 fleet.
The situation with French Mirage 2000-5 fighters is more limited. France is the only country that has officially announced deliveries of this aircraft type to Ukraine, with six jets pledged. Three aircraft had reportedly been delivered by the beginning of the year, one of which has been lost, leaving a possible total of five aircraft.
France is also working to secure additional Mirage fighters for Ukraine from Greece. Earlier reports suggested France wanted to negotiate the transfer of all 43 Greek Mirage aircraft, including 24 Mirage 2000-5 Mk II jets and 19 older Mirage 2000 EGM/BGM aircraft. Later, however, it became known that France may seek only 10 aircraft for Ukraine.
There have also been reports that Ukraine could exchange interceptor drones for 12 Mirage 2000-5 fighters from Qatar. Those aircraft have been out of service for some time but are reportedly in good condition. No official request of this kind has been announced.
As a result, Defense Express estimates that Ukraine could realistically have between five and 15 Mirage fighters, depending on whether France reaches an agreement with Greece. A far less likely scenario could bring the number to 41, excluding older Greek Mirage 2000 EGM/BGM aircraft that would most likely be used as spare parts donors.
The Gripen track could become one of the most important parts of Ukraine’s future fighter fleet. If a firm contract for Gripen E aircraft is signed, Sweden is expected to provide 16 used Gripen C/D fighters. Although earlier delivery timelines were not publicly detailed, Defense Express cautiously suggests these aircraft could arrive by 2030.
Under a realistic scenario, Ukraine could therefore enter the early 2030s with 96 to 129 Western fighter jets across the F-16, Mirage, and Gripen fleets.
That estimate does not account for future combat losses, aircraft that may be delivered only as spare parts donors, or additional possible donor countries.
In the most ambitious and unlikely scenario, Ukraine’s Western fighter fleet could reach up to 155 aircraft, again excluding spare parts donors and future losses.
Defense Express notes that the final number will depend not only on political decisions and delivery schedules, but also on how many transferred aircraft are actually combat-ready and how quickly Ukraine can absorb several different Western fighter platforms at once.
Earlier, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will receive Swedish Gripen fighter jets together with weapons, including long-range Meteor air-to-air missiles capable of striking enemy aircraft at distances of more than 200 kilometers.
Discuss this article:
-2726f499cae3619164ba58f50dedd378.jpg "DevDroid Droid TW-12.7 ground robot during trials, 2025.")
