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War in Ukraine

Russia Preparing to Mobilize Up to 600,000 More Troops Through 2027, Ukrainian Intelligence Says

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Russian recruits drafted during partial mobilization prepare to depart for combat training in Moscow, October 10, 2022. (Source: Getty Images)
Russian recruits drafted during partial mobilization prepare to depart for combat training in Moscow, October 10, 2022. (Source: Getty Images)

Russia is preparing for a new wave of mobilization that could bring up to 600,000 additional people into its military through 2027 as Moscow struggles to replace battlefield losses while seeking enough manpower for further offensive operations in Ukraine.

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According to Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Oleh Ivashchenko in an interview with Ukrinform published on September 7, Russian military planners are considering mobilizing approximately 300,000 people in 2026 and another 300,000 in 2027.

“We see such preparations,” Ivashchenko said, adding that Ukraine bases its assessment on intelligence rather than public statements from Russian leader Vladimir Putin denying plans for additional mobilization.

Ivashchenko said the mobilization could intensify after Russia’s upcoming State Duma elections and may be conducted without a major public announcement, particularly in remote regions, allowing the Kremlin to avoid creating additional tensions in large population centers such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Without additional mobilization, Russia is currently able primarily to replace its losses and maintain the size of its forces fighting against Ukraine, according to Ivashchenko.

However, he said additional manpower would be required if Moscow intends to expand its operations and pursue further military objectives, including the full occupation of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Russia is also facing growing problems with its existing contract recruitment model. Ivashchenko said regional budgets are increasingly unable to finance payments offered to new recruits, while Russian battlefield losses continue to rise.

He estimated Russia’s average daily losses at between 1,200 and 1,400 killed and seriously wounded, with the figure sometimes reaching 1,500.

Earlier, reports of forced military recruitment emerged from at least 17 Russian regions, with rights groups describing detentions, threats, and coercion into signing Defense Ministry contracts as Moscow struggled to attract enough voluntary recruits.

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