Russia’s Oil Revenue Machine Is Losing Steam—September Income Drops 22%

Russia’s federal budget received about $5.43 billion in oil and gas revenue in September, down 22% from the same month in 2025, according to Finance Ministry data cited by Russian outlet The Bell on October 5.

Revenue improved only modestly from August, rising 7% to roughly $5.09 billion. August itself had already recorded a 16% year-over-year decline, underscoring continued pressure on one of the Kremlin’s most important sources of budget income.

A growing share of that revenue is being offset by government compensation payments to Russian oil refiners, which are designed to cover the gap between domestic fuel prices and prices on the global market. Those payments jumped from about $2.37 billion to $3.67 billion in September.

The increase effectively absorbed the entire rise in mineral extraction tax revenue. Russia collected around $9.68 billion from the tax in September, up from approximately $8.43 billion in August, but the larger refinery compensation bill erased the additional proceeds.

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Category

War in Ukraine

Are Sanctions Working? Russia’s Oil Revenue Collapse Says It All

Dec 17, 2025 19:34

Since the beginning of 2026, Russia has received roughly $65.64 billion in oil and gas revenue, 17.2% less than during the first nine months of 2025. September’s result was broadly in line with Finance Ministry expectations, missing the government’s target for additional oil and gas revenue by only about $120 million.

For October, the Russian Finance Ministry expects roughly $3.47 billion in additional oil and gas revenue.

Earlier, reports emerged that Ukrainian long-range strikes had put more than half of Russia’s oil refining capacity out of operation.

Recent Ukrainian strikes have hit several Russian oil refineries and related facilities, including KINEF, Ust-Luga, Moscow, Yaroslavl, Perm, Ilsky, Saratov, and Syzran.

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