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War in Ukraine

Ukraine Prepares for Possible Russian War Expansion Through Belarus, Zelenskyy Says

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A howitzer, belonging to a Ukrainian artillery battery attached to the 59th Mechanized Brigade, shoots off to target the points controlled by Russian troops on November 05, 2022. Illustrative photo.
A howitzer, belonging to a Ukrainian artillery battery attached to the 59th Mechanized Brigade, shoots off to target the points controlled by Russian troops on November 05, 2022. Illustrative photo. (Source: Getty Images)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is preparing for five possible Russian scenarios involving an expansion of the war through Belarus and along its northern border, according to a post on his official Telegram channel on May 15.

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The Ukrainian president issued the directive after chairing a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Headquarters, which reviewed intelligence on Russian offensive planning and Moscow's reported preparations for a new mobilization drive.

According to the post, Ukrainian intelligence has analyzed in detail the data it holds on Russian planning of offensive operations along the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction. Zelenskyy stated that responses are being prepared for all possible enemy actions and that Ukrainian forces in the sector will be increased.

He also instructed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to draft additional diplomatic measures targeting Belarus, which Moscow could use as a launching pad for any expansion of the war. Parallel non-public tasks were assigned to Ukraine's intelligence services, the post noted.

On the Russian side, Zelenskyy confirmed that Kyiv had taken note of information indicating Moscow is preparing new mobilization steps to enlist an additional 100,000 personnel.

He stated that Russia currently lacks the capacity to conduct a covert call-up on that scale. The Kremlin would instead have to resort to political decisions of a different format, the post indicated, citing Russia's recent moves regarding Moldova's Transnistrian region as an example.

The Ukrainian president also pledged to broaden the geography of Kyiv's long-range strike campaign, the framing officials use for deep operations against Russian oil, defense-industrial, and military logistics targets hundreds of kilometers from the front line. Ukrainian forces have in recent weeks struck targets at distances approaching 1,000 kilometers from the border.

Zelenskyy framed the response as a unified deterrent, writing that Ukraine's task is to ensure "none of the five Russian scenarios for expanding the war through northern Ukraine" succeeds. He did not list the scenarios in the public statement.

Concerns over Belarus's potential role have intensified in recent weeks. Previously, it was reported that Kyiv had obtained details of contacts between Moscow and Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko aimed at drawing Minsk into new Russian operations.

The scenarios under consideration included strikes against the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction or against a NATO member state.

The mobilization assessment aligns with a recent warning from Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, which stated that any new wave of Russian call-ups would worsen the country’s economic downturn.

In a May 13 assessment, the service projected deeper labor shortages, a renewed wave of emigration, and mounting budget pressure if Moscow moved ahead with another mobilization drive.

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