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Russia’s Economy Could Face Long-Term Collapse if Putin Orders New Mobilization, Ukrainian Intelligence Says
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A potential new wave of mobilization in Russia could trigger a large-scale economic crisis with long-term consequences for the country’s economy, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service has warned on May 13.
The assessment is based on analyses by experts who predict a significant deterioration in Russia’s economic indicators should another mobilization campaign be launched.
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According to the intelligence service, Russia’s economy is already in a phase of recession—characterized by stagnation and slowing activity—and additional mobilization pressure could push it further into prolonged stagnation.
Analysts note that one of the key risks would be an intensified labor shortage. Modern warfare, they emphasize, depends not only on manpower but also on skilled personnel responsible for maintaining technical systems, communications, and electronic warfare capabilities.
Experts also warn that a renewed mobilization drive could trigger another wave of emigration. Unlike after the 2022 mobilization, when some citizens later returned, a new round could lead to a more permanent outflow of highly qualified specialists, further weakening Russia’s economic capacity.
“In addition, Russia’s financial difficulties should be highlighted. The budget deficit has already significantly exceeded planned levels, while the cost of supporting hundreds of thousands of mobilized personnel would require unsustainable expenditures,” the Foreign Intelligence Service stated.
The move comes amid broader efforts by Russian regional authorities to expand recruitment channels for contract military service, as the burden of manpower replenishment increasingly extends beyond traditional enlistment systems.
In Russia’s Ryazan region, officials have introduced mandatory requirements for local businesses to identify candidates for military contract service, according to a regional decree reported by the Conflict Intelligence Team.
The order, signed by Governor Pavel Malkov and published on the official legal information portal, establishes employee-based quotas for companies depending on their size.
Under the regulation, enterprises employing 150 to 300 staff must nominate at least two individuals for military service, companies with 300 to 500 employees are required to provide three, while those with more than 500 employees must identify five candidates. The obligation applies to all businesses regardless of ownership structure and remains in force from March 20 to September 20 this year.
In general, Russia is planning to enlist an additional 409,000 servicemen in 2026 while intensifying its operations along the front line, according to Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi.
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