A Russian rocket component weighing around one ton could reenter Earth’s atmosphere over Europe between May 16 and May 17, with fragments potentially surviving reentry and reaching the ground.
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According to Polish Space Agency (POLSA) on May 16, the object is the “Fregat” upper stage from a Russian Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in March. The agency stated that the module remains in orbit and is expected to enter the atmosphere within the next two days.
POLSA said the estimated reentry window extends from 8:43 a.m. on May 16 to 1:49 p.m. on May 17, Polish time. The projected trajectory covers a large part of Europe, including possible passage over Poland.
The “Fregat” module is used as an upper stage to place payloads into orbit and is equipped with fuel tanks and onboard control systems. POLSA estimates the object’s mass at approximately one ton.
According to the agency, specialists cannot yet determine whether the object will fully burn up during atmospheric reentry due to incomplete data regarding the module’s structure and materials. POLSA noted that some fragments could potentially survive and reach the surface.
The agency added that calculations are being updated continuously because even small changes in orbital parameters can significantly affect the projected trajectory shortly before reentry.
Earlier, Poland’s Internal Security Agency (ABW) warned that cyberattacks targeting water treatment facilities across the country in 2025 could pose a direct risk to public utilities. The agency also linked a broader wave of hostile cyber activity against Poland to Russian intelligence services, following what Polish officials described as Russia-backed cyberattacks on the country’s energy infrastructure in late 2025 that nearly caused a nationwide blackout.
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