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Russia’s Budget Deficit Hits $61B, Exceeding Full-Year Plan by 37%

Russia’s federal budget deficit reached $61.08 billion in the first nine months of 2026, exceeding the Kremlin’s original full-year target by 37%, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service reported on October 18.
The January–September shortfall amounted to 5.186 trillion rubles, or 2.2% of GDP, compared with the government’s initial annual target of $44.59 billion, or 1.6% of GDP.
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In September, Russia’s Finance Ministry raised its full-year deficit forecast to $86.51 billion, equivalent to 7.345 trillion rubles or 3.2% of GDP, the intelligence service reported.
Federal spending increased 14.5% year-on-year during the first nine months, reaching $410.19 billion. Revenue rose more slowly, by 10%, to $349.10 billion.
Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell 17.2% over the same period to $64.44 billion, according to the Ukrainian intelligence assessment.

Non-oil and gas revenues increased 18.8% to $284.66 billion, while value-added tax receipts rose 27.4% to $158.62 billion.
The Foreign Intelligence Service noted that the additional tax revenue was not enough to offset falling oil and gas income and rising government expenditure.
Russia is therefore spending more than it collects and must cover the gap through accumulated reserves or borrowing, the agency stated.

It added that drawing down funds held in government accounts reduces the resources available for future spending. In the near term, Moscow could be forced to seek additional revenue through higher taxes, increase borrowing, or cut budget expenditure.
The widening deficit is already pushing Moscow toward higher taxes. In September, Russia prepared measures expected to raise nearly $44 billion from individuals and businesses through 2029, including higher taxes on passive income and new levies on metals, mining, and other industries as war spending continues to rise.
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