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Sweden Warns Russia Could Test NATO With Limited Attack in Near Term

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A Swedish soldier sits on a military boat with a machine gun during the Baltic Operations NATO military drills (Baltops 22) on June 11, 2022, on Sweden's eastern coastline.
A Swedish soldier sits on a military boat with a machine gun during the Baltic Operations NATO military drills (Baltops 22) on June 11, 2022, on Sweden's eastern coastline. (Source: Getty Images)

Russia could seek to test NATO's cohesion and commitment to mutual defense through a military attack in the "relatively near term," Sweden's parliamentary defense commission warned in a report covered by Bloomberg on June 12.

The commission stated that such action could come if the Kremlin assesses that "political conditions are favorable," even when the balance of forces falls short of the traditional threshold for an attack, Bloomberg reported.

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The assessment marks a sharp acceleration of Western timelines for when Moscow might open a second front while still fighting in Ukraine.

Earlier evaluations held that Russian forces would need several years to reconstitute after the war, but Sweden's military intelligence agency has indicated that Russia already has the capacity to carry out a limited armed attack beyond Ukraine.

Important parts of its armed forces have remained relatively unaffected by the fighting, the commission noted, pointing to hybrid-warfare capabilities, air and naval forces, and long-range strike assets.

Russia is also forming new units, including within the western Leningrad district, and continues its military buildup on the Kola Peninsula and in the Arctic, the report added.

Sweden is the most recent country to join NATO, acceding in 2024 after applying alongside neighboring Finland in the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The commission also flagged a shift in Europe's relationship with the US since its previous report in 2024. It described the conduct of US foreign and security policy under the current administration as increasingly characterized by "unpredictability, rapid shifts, transactionalism, harsher rhetoric, and a greater willingness to use military force unilaterally," Bloomberg noted.

Nordic intelligence services have raised parallel alarms in recent weeks. Russia is currently expanding military infrastructure along its northwestern frontier and could station up to 115,000 troops near NATO's northern and Baltic borders once the war in Ukraine ends, with restored and newly built bases assessed as preparation for a larger conventional confrontation with the alliance.

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