Ukraine’s Black Sea Breakthrough Drives a Stunning 57% Export Surge

Ukraine’s seaport authority has reported a significant increase in cargo turnover, with exports reaching 97.2 million tons in 2024—a 57% rise compared to 62 million tons in 2023.

This growth is significant for Ukraine, as exports are a key source of revenue that helps fund its military. While international partners provide financial support primarily for social expenditures, Ukraine largely covers its defense costs independently.

Importantly, the country has gradually restored exports of agricultural and other goods. Ukraine is a major grain exporter and a global leader in various grain categories. The maritime route remains the fastest and most cost-effective way to deliver food to dozens of countries worldwide. In 2024, Ukraine exported over 60 million tons of agricultural products alone.

The maritime route is also critical for another major export sector—ores and metal products. In 2022, when Russia dominated the Black Sea, only grain exports were permitted, severely restricting the shipment of other goods. However, successful Ukrainian military operations in 2023 and 2024 changed the situation. Over the past year, Ukraine exported 18.5 million tons of ore and metal products, accounting for nearly 25% of all seaborne exports.

Despite this progress, maritime exports still lag significantly behind pre-war levels. In 2021, Ukraine exported nearly 154 million tons, compared to 97.2 million tons in 2024. Export activity remains limited by various constraints, including restricted access to ports. Currently, operations are mainly concentrated in the so-called “Greater Odesa” ports—those located in and around Odesa. The Danube ports are safer but can only accommodate smaller vessels, which imposes additional limitations.

Russia continues to launch attacks on Odesa, including strikes on civilian port infrastructure. This makes the loading process more dangerous and time-consuming, while also driving up insurance costs. The vessels operating from these ports are exclusively civilian transport ships, primarily delivering food to African and Middle Eastern countries that rely on these shipments for survival. Ukraine has also sent food supplies to Syria.

Ukraine’s maritime corridor

Following the full-scale invasion, the United Nations, Türkiye, Ukraine, and Russia established a multilateral agreement to facilitate the safe export of Ukrainian grain. However, the system functioned poorly due to Moscow's deliberate obstruction of inspections—at times, only a handful of ships could pass through per week. By contrast, in 2024, 3,138 vessels have already used Ukraine’s maritime corridor.

The development of a fleet of naval drones, along with long-range Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, has significantly weakened Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, resulting in the loss of dozens of warships and even a submarine. As a result, Ukraine has managed to make the Black Sea safer and establish a secure passage for commercial vessels.

This achievement has delivered multiple benefits. First, it has revitalized exports across various industries. Second, it has stimulated the economy, restoring jobs and increasing budget revenues. Third, it has demonstrated that Russia’s fleet can be neutralized—its combat capability severely degraded through innovative means such as drones.