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France Predicts Major War in Europe by 2030 Over Escalating Russian Threat
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A full-scale war in Europe is “highly likely” by 2030 due to the mounting “Russian threat,” according to France’s National Strategic Review – 2025, unveiled by the General Secretariat for Defense and National Security on July 14.
The doctrine underscores the need for France to prepare for the risk of “a major war in the heart of Europe,” while acknowledging that the United States is unlikely to remain actively involved in European security.
While any conflict is expected to erupt beyond French territory, the review warns that France could still be drawn into hostilities.
Key priorities for France by 2030 include bolstering both the country’s military capabilities and national morale to prepare for potential warfare and to counter destabilizing activities on French soil and their consequences.
The document calls for increased defense spending to modernize the armed forces and enhance the country’s resilience.
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The review identifies Russia as a direct and “unambiguous” threat to France and all of Europe.
“Kremlin has long and regularly in official statements portrayed France and Europeans as enemies. Prioritizing this threat… places Europe in a situation of long-term confrontation. The prospect of new Russian aggression against Europe within 3 to 5 years from now is a central element in the interests of European defense and security,” the review states.
The document emphasizes that there are no signs of Putin abandoning his aggressive policies, ideological hostility, or territorial ambitions based on the presence of Russians or Russian-speaking populations. His stance remains driven by the vision of an "eternal Russia" and opposition to what he portrays as Western decadence and hegemony.
The French government also warns of an escalating Russian threat,” fueled by the growth of Russia’s defense industry. The review anticipates possible aggression against Ukraine, Moldova, the Balkans.
Finally, the document underscores that “the outcome of the current phase of the war in Ukraine is very important for the future of Europe,” adding that European security largely depends on it. The review concludes that Europe must continue its support for Ukraine.
Earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron urged a significant increase in defense spending, cautioning that Europe is facing its most serious threat to freedom since World War II.
Addressing the French Armed Forces ahead of Bastille Day, Macron described the current period as a critical juncture for the continent and criticized Russia for pursuing imperialist ambitions.
