Munich Report Warns Russia May Be Preparing for War in the Baltics

Russia may be laying the groundwork for a future military confrontation with the Baltic states or another nearby country, according to a report presented at the Munich Security Conference on February 8.

The assessment argues that Europe can no longer rely on the long-standing American security guarantee that shaped the continent’s defense posture for decades.

Since January 2025, US military assistance to Ukraine has dropped sharply, while discussions in Washington increasingly tie future security commitments to trade concessions from the European Union.

At the same time, US officials are pressing European NATO members to take on the leading role in sustaining Ukraine’s defense, signaling a potential shift in transatlantic burden-sharing.

Analysts cited in the report say Moscow has already reoriented its economy toward prolonged confrontation, directing as much as 40 percent of state spending away from civilian needs and into defense.

Such mobilization, they warn, points not only to the continuation of the war against Ukraine but also to preparations for additional conflicts ranging from localized campaigns against neighboring countries to broader regional escalation in the Baltic region.

Security experts caution that without deeper military integration and a coherent collective defense structure, the European Union could remain stuck in a strategic “gray zone,” vulnerable to pressure from rival power blocs.

Earlier, the defense ministers of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia agreed to create a unified military mobility space aimed at simplifying troop movements and strengthening NATO’s eastern flank.

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